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Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast

FinalDAL leads series 3-2

Away

Mavericks

50-32

104–92

at

Home

Thunder

57-25

DAL 38%OKC 62%

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Paycom Center · TNT

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.

OKC favored DAL favored95 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4OKC50%DAL

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Mavericks

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game104–92
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–92
  • Q412.0Jaden Hardy defensive rebound104–92
  • Q415.1A.J. Lawson blocks Ousmane Dieng 's 25-foot three point jumper104–92
  • Q428.1Dereck Lively II makes free throw 2 of 2104–92
  • Q428.1A.J. Lawson enters the game for Derrick Jones Jr.103–92
  • Q428.1Dante Exum enters the game for P.J. Washington103–92
  • Q428.1Jaylin Williams enters the game for Jalen Williams103–92
  • Q428.1Ousmane Dieng enters the game for Chet Holmgren103–92
  • Q428.1Aaron Wiggins enters the game for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander103–92

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q210:24Josh Giddey makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)DAL 28 – 27 OKC · OKC 50% → 58% +7
  2. Q210:08Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (P.J. Washington assists)DAL 31 – 27 OKC · DAL 42% → 50% +7
  3. Q311:03Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 26-foot three point jumper (Luguentz Dort assists)DAL 56 – 47 OKC · OKC 24% → 32% +8
  4. Q340.1Luka Doncic makes 25-foot step back jumpshotDAL 79 – 67 OKC · DAL 78% → 86% +8
  5. Q44:54P.J. Washington makes 23-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)DAL 93 – 83 OKC · DAL 85% → 94% +9

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.

Thunder 62%

LeanMiss
DAL 38%OKC 62%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
OKC 62%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
OKC -4
OKC 65%
Fair odds
OKC -162
DAL +162 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
DAL 107.5 – 111.2 OKC
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorDALOKCWhy
Team rating15911645Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+27+44DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score)
Elo ratingsOKC +107 EloOKC 65.0%
Market-implied ratingsOKC 61.5%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastOKC 61.9%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder compared, with each team's league rank
DALStatOKC
7th of 30117.9Points scored120.13rd of 30
20th of 30115.6Points allowed112.711th of 30
14th of 30+2.2Margin+7.42nd of 30
8th of 30115.6Offense rating117.53rd of 30
18th of 30113.5Defense rating110.34th of 30
6th of 30101.8Pace101.510th of 30
3rd of 307–3Last 107–33rd of 30
5th of 3025–16Road vs home33–82nd of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Mavericks

+27 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Thunder

+44 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

MavericksThunder
130014001500160017001800league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Head to head

DAL 3–5 OKC in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.