Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints36
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists8
- Jalen WilliamsRebounds9
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints29
- Luka DoncicAssists10
- Dereck Lively IIRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–117
- Q40.0Thunder offensive team rebound116–117
- Q40.1Jalen Williams misses 64-foot three point jumper116–117
- Q41.0Chet Holmgren defensive rebound116–117
- Q42.1P.J. Washington misses free throw 3 of 3116–117
- Q42.1P.J. Washington makes free throw 2 of 3116–117
- Q42.1P.J. Washington makes free throw 1 of 3116–116
- Q42.1Jaylin Williams enters the game for Luguentz Dort116–115
- Q42.1(00:02.5) [Thunder] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Thunder] charged with a timeout116–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:02Kyrie Irving makes 26-foot three pointer (Derrick Jones Jr. assists)OKC 108 – 110 DAL · DAL 42% → 66% +24DAL 42% → 66%+24 pts
- Q42:01P.J. Washington makes 24-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)OKC 110 – 113 DAL · DAL 50% → 78% +28DAL 50% → 78%+28 pts
- Q420.1Chet Holmgren makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 116 – 115 DAL · OKC 27% → 73% +47OKC 27% → 73%+47 pts
- Q42.1P.J. Washington makes free throw 1 of 3OKC 116 – 116 DAL · DAL 3% → 50% +47DAL 3% → 50%+47 pts
- Q42.1P.J. Washington makes free throw 2 of 3OKC 116 – 117 DAL · DAL 50% → 97% +47DAL 50% → 97%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- DAL 51%
- Fair odds
- DAL -106
- OKC +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 108.2 – 108.6 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1628 | 1608 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +37 | +26 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +5 Elo | DAL 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 51.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30120.1 | Points scored | 117.97th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.7 | Points allowed | 115.620th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+7.4 | Margin | +2.214th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.5 | Offense rating | 115.68th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.3 | Defense rating | 113.518th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.5 | Pace | 101.86th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 7th of 3024–17 | Road vs home | 25–1612th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OKC 5–4 DAL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.
- May 15DAL 104 @ OKC 92PlayoffsPicked OKC 62%Miss
- May 13OKC 100 @ DAL 96PlayoffsPicked DAL 50%Miss
- May 11OKC 101 @ DAL 105PlayoffsPicked OKC 51%Miss
- May 9DAL 119 @ OKC 110PlayoffsPicked OKC 64%Miss
- May 7DAL 95 @ OKC 117PlayoffsPicked OKC 60%Hit
- Apr 14DAL 86 @ OKC 135Picked OKC 79%Hit
- Mar 14DAL 119 @ OKC 126Picked OKC 73%Hit
- Feb 10OKC 111 @ DAL 146Picked OKC 53%Miss