Phoenix Suns at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints25
- Tyus JonesAssists8
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds9
Clippers- James HardenPoints29
- James HardenAssists8
- James HardenRebounds12
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game116–113
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime116–113
- OT1.1James Harden lost ball turnover (Grayson Allen steals)116–113
- OT3.0Grayson Allen enters the game for Jusuf Nurkic116–113
- OT3.0Norman Powell enters the game for Kai Jones116–113
- OT3.0Kris Dunn enters the game for Nicolas Batum116–113
- OT3.0Clippers Full timeout116–113
- OT3.0Jusuf Nurkic makes free throw 2 of 2116–113
- OT3.0Kai Jones enters the game for Norman Powell115–113
- OT3.0Jusuf Nurkic makes free throw 1 of 2115–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:39Kevin Durant makes driving layup (Tyus Jones assists)PHX 100 – 99 LAC · PHX 41% → 64% +22PHX 41% → 64%+22 pts
- Q41:14James Harden makes 18-foot step back jumpshotPHX 101 – 101 LAC · LAC 24% → 48% +24LAC 24% → 48%+24 pts
- Q421.0Kevin Durant makes 15-foot two point shotPHX 103 – 103 LAC · PHX 12% → 51% +39PHX 12% → 51%+39 pts
- OT4:21Derrick Jones Jr. makes 27-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)PHX 105 – 106 LAC · LAC 33% → 53% +20LAC 33% → 53%+20 pts
- OT3:44Bradley Beal makes 25-foot three pointerPHX 108 – 106 LAC · PHX 46% → 68% +22PHX 46% → 68%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -4.5
- ML PHX -200 / LAC +165
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -3
- PHX 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- PHX: Elo 62.3%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- PHX -177
- LAC +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 114.5 – 110.0 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −10 | −122 | PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +87 Elo | PHX 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 58.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30116.2 | Points scored | 115.612th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.2 | Points allowed | 112.310th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+3.1 | Margin | +3.37th of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.6 | Offense rating | 116.74th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.5 | Defense rating | 113.417th of 30 |
| 15th of 30100.0 | Pace | 99.020th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 7th of 3024–17 | Road vs home | 25–1612th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
−122 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHX 1–3 LAC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.