Portland Trail Blazers at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Deandre AytonPoints20
- Scoot HendersonAssists5
- Deandre AytonRebounds11
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints24
- Domantas SabonisAssists7
- Domantas SabonisRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–111
- Q40.1shot clock turnover98–111
- Q424.1Rayan Rupert makes dunk98–111
- Q426.1Jordan McLaughlin lost ball turnover (Rayan Rupert steals)96–111
- Q433.1Rayan Rupert makes free throw 2 of 296–111
- Q433.1Rayan Rupert makes free throw 1 of 295–111
- Q433.1Isaac Jones shooting foul94–111
- Q437.0Duop Reath defensive rebound94–111
- Q442.1Duop Reath blocks Doug McDermott's layup94–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:52De'Aaron Fox makes 24-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)POR 39 – 47 SAC · SAC 87% → 91% +4SAC 87% → 91%+4 pts
- Q310:53Kevin Huerter makes 26-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)POR 46 – 54 SAC · SAC 86% → 91% +4SAC 86% → 91%+4 pts
- Q310:14Anfernee Simons makes 24-foot three pointerPOR 51 – 56 SAC · POR 9% → 14% +4POR 9% → 14%+4 pts
- Q37:26Jerami Grant makes 23-foot three point jumper (Anfernee Simons assists)POR 58 – 60 SAC · POR 14% → 20% +6POR 14% → 20%+6 pts
- Q37:08De'Aaron Fox makes 26-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)POR 58 – 63 SAC · SAC 80% → 86% +6SAC 80% → 86%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -12.5
- ML POR +550 / SAC -800
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -8.5
- SAC 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- SAC: Elo 80.3%, market 85.2%
- Fair odds
- SAC -578
- POR +578 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 109.0 – 121.5 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1416 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | POR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −24 | +52 | POR: Missing Robert Williams III −4 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +244 Elo | SAC 80.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 79.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 79.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 85.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30106.4 | Points scored | 116.69th of 30 |
| 19th of 30115.4 | Points allowed | 114.817th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−9.0 | Margin | +1.717th of 30 |
| 29th of 30106.2 | Offense rating | 114.913th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.2 | Defense rating | 113.215th of 30 |
| 19th of 3099.1 | Pace | 100.514th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 25th of 3010–31 | Road vs home | 24–1716th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−24 Elo- Robert Williams III left hamstring strain−4 Elo
Kings
+52 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
POR 1–2 SAC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.