New Orleans Pelicans at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Jordan HawkinsPoints24
- Zion WilliamsonAssists7
- Zion WilliamsonRebounds11
Trail Blazers- Jerami GrantPoints34
- Anfernee SimonsAssists7
- Deandre AytonRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–103
- Q40.0Trail Blazers offensive team rebound105–103
- Q40.0Herbert Jones blocks Anfernee Simons's driving layup105–103
- Q44.2Yves Missi enters the game for Jordan Hawkins105–103
- Q44.2Javonte Green enters the game for CJ McCollum105–103
- Q44.2Trail Blazers Full timeout105–103
- Q45.0Brandon Ingram makes 17-foot two point shot105–103
- Q426.1Pelicans defensive team rebound103–103
- Q426.1CJ McCollum vs. Anfernee Simons (Zion Williamson gains possession)103–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:07Jerami Grant makes driving layupNO 99 – 99 POR · POR 29% → 45% +15POR 29% → 45%+15 pts
- Q42:24Anfernee Simons makes 9-foot driving floating jump shotNO 99 – 101 POR · POR 45% → 64% +18POR 45% → 64%+18 pts
- Q42:10Jordan Hawkins makes 16-foot pullup jump shot (Zion Williamson assists)NO 101 – 101 POR · NO 35% → 54% +19NO 35% → 54%+19 pts
- Q41:34Brandon Ingram makes 13-foot jumper (Herbert Jones assists)NO 103 – 103 POR · NO 31% → 54% +22NO 31% → 54%+22 pts
- Q45.0Brandon Ingram makes 17-foot two point shotNO 105 – 103 POR · NO 51% → >99% +49NO 51% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pelicans 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- NO -6.5
- ML NO -270 / POR +220
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -4.5
- NO 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- NO: Elo 67.5%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- NO -234
- POR +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 113.0 – 106.5 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1393 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −18 | −41 | NO: Weaker than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Robert Williams III −4 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +127 Elo | NO 67.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 64.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 64.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NO 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30115.1 | Points scored | 106.429th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.7 | Points allowed | 115.419th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.4 | Margin | −9.027th of 30 |
| 10th of 30115.6 | Offense rating | 106.229th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 115.223rd of 30 |
| 17th of 3099.4 | Pace | 99.119th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 1st of 3028–14 | Road vs home | 11–3026th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
−18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−41 Elo- Robert Williams III left hamstring−4 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NO 3–0 POR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.