Chicago Bulls at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Zach LaVinePoints27
- Coby WhiteAssists6
- Nikola VucevicRebounds11
Pelicans- Brandon IngramPoints33
- Dejounte MurrayAssists10
- Dejounte MurrayRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–123
- Q43.0Antonio Reeves lost ball turnover (Dalen Terry steals)111–123
- Q410.1Karlo Matkovic offensive rebound111–123
- Q414.0Antonio Reeves misses 22-foot three point jumper111–123
- Q427.2Chris Duarte makes 26-foot three point jumper (Talen Horton-Tucker assists)111–123
- Q434.2Bulls offensive team rebound108–123
- Q435.2Karlo Matkovic blocks Talen Horton-Tucker 's 2-foot two point shot108–123
- Q435.2Jalen Smith defensive rebound108–123
- Q437.0Antonio Reeves misses 26-foot three point jumper108–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:45Zach LaVine makes 28-foot three point shot (Coby White assists)CHI 57 – 50 NO · CHI 51% → 59% +8CHI 51% → 59%+8 pts
- Q238.1CJ McCollum makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)CHI 58 – 59 NO · NO 54% → 63% +8NO 54% → 63%+8 pts
- Q33:20CJ McCollum makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotCHI 77 – 83 NO · NO 68% → 77% +9NO 68% → 77%+9 pts
- Q410:49Jalen Smith makes 24-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)CHI 90 – 95 NO · CHI 15% → 24% +9CHI 15% → 24%+9 pts
- Q410:34Brandon Ingram makes 26-foot three point jumperCHI 90 – 98 NO · NO 76% → 85% +9NO 76% → 85%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pelicans 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- NO -5.5
- ML CHI +165 / NO -200
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -2
- NO 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- NO: Elo 58.1%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- NO -177
- CHI +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 110.0 – 115.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −65 | −82 | CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · NO: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +57 Elo | NO 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 56.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NO 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30112.3 | Points scored | 115.113th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.7 | Points allowed | 110.78th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +4.46th of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 115.610th of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.4 | Defense rating | 111.18th of 30 |
| 28th of 3097.9 | Pace | 99.417th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 17th of 3019–22 | Road vs home | 21–1918th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−65 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
−82 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 2–0 NO in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.