Chicago Bulls at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- DeMar DeRozanPoints30
- Alex CarusoAssists8
- Nikola VucevicRebounds11
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints40
- Jalen BrunsonAssists7
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds13
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game119–120
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime119–120
- OT2.0Knicks Full timeout119–120
- OT2.0Dalen Terry enters the game for Nikola Vucevic119–120
- OT2.0Miles McBride enters the game for Precious Achiuwa119–120
- OT2.0Javonte Green personal foul119–120
- OT2.0Jalen Brunson defensive rebound119–120
- OT2.1DeMar DeRozan misses driving floating jump shot119–120
- OT13.1Nikola Vucevic enters the game for Dalen Terry119–120
- OT13.1Precious Achiuwa enters the game for Miles McBride119–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:51Alex Caruso makes 23-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)CHI 107 – 105 NY · CHI 36% → 67% +31CHI 36% → 67%+31 pts
- Q41:19Coby White makes two point shot (Nikola Vucevic assists)CHI 109 – 107 NY · CHI 47% → 71% +24CHI 47% → 71%+24 pts
- Q41:01Jalen Brunson makes 11-foot pullup jump shotCHI 109 – 109 NY · NY 26% → 53% +27NY 26% → 53%+27 pts
- OT3:13Donte DiVincenzo makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)CHI 112 – 114 NY · NY 47% → 70% +23NY 47% → 70%+23 pts
- OT19.1Josh Hart makes tip shotCHI 117 – 120 NY · NY 75% → 97% +22NY 75% → 97%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Knicks 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -6.5
- NY 75%
- Fair odds
- NY -209
- CHI +209 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 106.7 – 112.3 NY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1606 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +12 | +37 | CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +188 Elo | NY 74.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 66.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 67.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30112.2 | Points scored | 112.719th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.6 | Points allowed | 108.12nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +4.66th of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 115.88th of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.4 | Defense rating | 111.08th of 30 |
| 28th of 3097.9 | Pace | 97.230th of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 16th of 3019–21 | Road vs home | 26–149th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 1–2 NY in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.