Brooklyn Nets at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints41
- Cam ThomasAssists6
- Trendon WatfordRebounds13
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints30
- Jalen BrunsonAssists11
- Mitchell RobinsonRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–111
- Q40.1Knicks defensive team rebound107–111
- Q42.1Mitchell Robinson blocks Noah Clowney 's 27-foot three point jumper107–111
- Q44.1Jalen Wilson enters the game for Nic Claxton107–111
- Q44.1Nets Full timeout107–111
- Q44.1Jalen Brunson makes free throw 2 of 2107–111
- Q44.1Noah Clowney enters the game for Jalen Wilson107–110
- Q44.1Jalen Brunson makes free throw 1 of 2107–110
- Q44.1Double technical foul: Cam Thomas and OG Anunoby107–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:09Cam Thomas makes 25-foot step back jumpshot (Jacob Gilyard assists)BKN 81 – 84 NY · BKN 19% → 29% +10BKN 19% → 29%+10 pts
- Q44:06Jalen Wilson makes two point shot (Trendon Watford assists)BKN 96 – 98 NY · BKN 19% → 31% +11BKN 19% → 31%+11 pts
- Q42:50Trendon Watford makes layup (Cam Thomas assists)BKN 98 – 99 NY · BKN 22% → 37% +15BKN 22% → 37%+15 pts
- Q42:13Cam Thomas makes 6-foot driving floating jump shotBKN 100 – 101 NY · BKN 20% → 36% +16BKN 20% → 36%+16 pts
- Q41:22Jalen Brunson makes 7-foot driving floating jump shotBKN 100 – 105 NY · NY 84% → 95% +10NY 84% → 95%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Knicks 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -7
- NY 76%
- Fair odds
- NY -225
- BKN +225 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 101.5 – 107.7 NY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1441 | 1603 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | NY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −15 | +23 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +196 Elo | NY 75.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 68.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 69.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30110.7 | Points scored | 112.719th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.4 | Points allowed | 108.12nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−2.6 | Margin | +4.66th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30111.4 | Offense rating | 115.79th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.1 | Defense rating | 110.97th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3098.7 | Pace | 97.330th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3012–26 | Road vs home | 25–149th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BKN 0–3 NY in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.