Toronto Raptors at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Immanuel QuickleyPoints32
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists9
- Malik WilliamsRebounds14
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints23
- Dennis SchroderAssists9
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–106
- Q41.1Raptors offensive team rebound102–106
- Q41.1Gradey Dick misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot102–106
- Q44.1Jordan Nwora enters the game for Ochai Agbaji102–106
- Q44.1Raptors Full timeout102–106
- Q44.1Dennis Schroder makes free throw 2 of 2102–106
- Q44.1Malik Williams enters the game for Jordan Nwora102–105
- Q44.1Dennis Schroder makes free throw 1 of 2102–105
- Q44.1Immanuel Quickley personal take foul102–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:02Gradey Dick makes 24-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)TOR 94 – 93 BKN · TOR 29% → 48% +18TOR 29% → 48%+18 pts
- Q42:22Noah Clowney makes dunkTOR 97 – 97 BKN · BKN 38% → 56% +18BKN 38% → 56%+18 pts
- Q41:49Nic Claxton makes 1-foot dunk (Dennis Schroder assists)TOR 97 – 99 BKN · BKN 55% → 75% +20BKN 55% → 75%+20 pts
- Q449.2Immanuel Quickley makes 26-foot step back jumpshotTOR 100 – 99 BKN · TOR 19% → 62% +43TOR 19% → 62%+43 pts
- Q435.1Dennis Schroder makes 2-foot two point shotTOR 100 – 101 BKN · BKN 35% → 71% +36BKN 35% → 71%+36 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nets 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BKN 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -8.5
- BKN 79%
- Fair odds
- BKN -306
- TOR +306 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 107.3 – 115.8 BKN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1364 | 1439 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −99 | −15 | TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups · BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BKN +234 Elo | BKN 79.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BKN 74.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 75.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30112.7 | Points scored | 110.824th of 30 |
| 25th of 30118.9 | Points allowed | 113.515th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−6.2 | Margin | −2.722nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30110.6 | Offense rating | 111.423rd of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.7 | Defense rating | 114.220th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.2 | Pace | 98.821st of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 24th of 3011–27 | Road vs home | 19–2123rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
−99 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 1–2 BKN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.