Indiana Pacers at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Tyrese HaliburtonPoints30
- Andrew NembhardAssists8
- Pascal SiakamRebounds9
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints23
- Bruce BrownAssists5
- Malik WilliamsRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game140–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter140–123
- Q45.0shot clock turnover140–123
- Q427.2Quenton Jackson defensive rebound140–123
- Q430.2Malik Williams misses 24-foot three point jumper140–123
- Q443.1Ben Sheppard makes two point shot (Andrew Nembhard assists)140–123
- Q446.0Quenton Jackson defensive rebound138–123
- Q447.0Malik Williams misses tip shot138–123
- Q447.0Malik Williams offensive rebound138–123
- Q450.2Gary Trent Jr. misses 25-foot three point shot138–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:42Ben Sheppard makes 23-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)IND 30 – 37 TOR · IND 46% → 54% +7IND 46% → 54%+7 pts
- Q28:11Obi Toppin makes 22-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)IND 39 – 45 TOR · IND 47% → 55% +8IND 47% → 55%+8 pts
- Q22:11Andrew Nembhard makes 25-foot three point jumper (Myles Turner assists)IND 56 – 57 TOR · IND 57% → 65% +8IND 57% → 65%+8 pts
- Q21:54Kelly Olynyk makes 26-foot three point jumper (Gary Trent Jr. assists)IND 56 – 60 TOR · TOR 35% → 43% +8TOR 35% → 43%+8 pts
- Q239.1Myles Turner makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 63 – 62 TOR · IND 62% → 70% +8IND 62% → 70%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pacers 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -9
- IND 81%
- Fair odds
- IND -271
- TOR +271 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 123.9 – 116.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1368 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +23 | −78 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Missing Chris Boucher −11 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +257 Elo | IND 81.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 72.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 73.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30122.5 | Points scored | 112.619th of 30 |
| 27th of 30120.2 | Points allowed | 118.624th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+2.3 | Margin | −6.024th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.2 | Offense rating | 110.524th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.0 | Defense rating | 116.525th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30103.6 | Pace | 101.112th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 15th of 3020–19 | Road vs home | 14–2624th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
−78 Elo- Chris Boucher right knee injury−11 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
IND 1–2 TOR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.