New York Knicks at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints39
- Isaiah HartensteinAssists6
- Josh HartRebounds16
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints18
- Jayson TatumAssists7
- Kristaps PorzingisRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–109
- Q40.1Knicks defensive team rebound118–109
- Q43.1Payton Pritchard misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot118–109
- Q46.1shot clock turnover118–109
- Q431.0Payton Pritchard makes 22-foot pullup jump shot118–109
- Q435.0Bojan Bogdanovic makes driving layup (Miles McBride assists)118–107
- Q449.0Svi Mykhailiuk makes 24-foot three point shot (Payton Pritchard assists)116–107
- Q450.15 second violation116–104
- Q450.1Luke Kornet makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Payton Pritchard assists)116–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q139.2Jayson Tatum makes 28-foot three pointerNY 30 – 27 BOS · BOS 50% → 58% +7BOS 50% → 58%+7 pts
- Q211:00Josh Hart makes 26-foot three point jumper (Miles McBride assists)NY 35 – 32 BOS · NY 36% → 43% +7NY 36% → 43%+7 pts
- Q210:38Bojan Bogdanovic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)NY 38 – 34 BOS · NY 38% → 45% +7NY 38% → 45%+7 pts
- Q25:52OG Anunoby makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 50 – 45 BOS · NY 42% → 50% +8NY 42% → 50%+8 pts
- Q23:31Bojan Bogdanovic makes 24-foot three point jumperNY 57 – 45 BOS · NY 62% → 69% +8NY 62% → 69%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -5.5
- BOS 72%
- Fair odds
- BOS -197
- NY +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 105.6 – 110.8 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1587 | 1699 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +41 | +52 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | NY crossed 1 time zone and BOS crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +160 Elo | BOS 71.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 65.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 66.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30112.7 | Points scored | 120.42nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30108.1 | Points allowed | 109.15th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+4.6 | Margin | +11.31st of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.6 | Offense rating | 121.01st of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.9 | Defense rating | 109.63rd of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.3 | Pace | 98.723rd of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 11th of 3022–18 | Road vs home | 35–31st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+52 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NY 0–4 BOS in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.