Chicago Bulls at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Javonte GreenPoints24
- Jevon CarterAssists12
- Adama SanogoRebounds20
Wizards- Deni AvdijaPoints24
- Jared ButlerAssists10
- Deni AvdijaRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–127
- Q40.0Torrey Craig defensive rebound129–127
- Q40.0Corey Kispert misses layup129–127
- Q44.1Wizards Full timeout129–127
- Q44.1Adama Sanogo makes free throw 2 of 2129–127
- Q44.1Bulls offensive team rebound128–127
- Q44.1Adama Sanogo misses free throw 1 of 2128–127
- Q44.1Tristan Vukcevic personal foul128–127
- Q44.1Adama Sanogo defensive rebound128–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:26Henri Drell makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jevon Carter assists)CHI 115 – 115 WSH · CHI 28% → 51% +22CHI 28% → 51%+22 pts
- Q41:51Dalen Terry makes driving layupCHI 118 – 115 WSH · CHI 61% → 79% +18CHI 61% → 79%+18 pts
- Q41:37Deni Avdija makes driving layupCHI 118 – 117 WSH · WSH 19% → 38% +19WSH 19% → 38%+19 pts
- Q41:24Torrey Craig makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dalen Terry assists)CHI 121 – 117 WSH · CHI 62% → 89% +27CHI 62% → 89%+27 pts
- Q423.1Corey Kispert makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jared Butler assists)CHI 127 – 126 WSH · WSH <1% → 28% +27WSH <1% → 28%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bulls 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -2
- CHI 59%
- Fair odds
- CHI -109
- WSH +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 116.2 – 115.6 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1304 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −50 | −6 | CHI: Missing DeMar DeRozan −46, Nikola Vucevic −17 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · WSH: Missing Tyus Jones −3, Richaun Holmes −1 (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | WSH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CHI +63 Elo | CHI 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 52.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30112.0 | Points scored | 113.517th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.5 | Points allowed | 122.830th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.5 | Margin | −9.429th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.9 | Offense rating | 108.525th of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.4 | Defense rating | 117.528th of 30 |
| 28th of 3097.8 | Pace | 104.31st of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 17th of 3018–21 | Road vs home | 7–3329th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−50 Elo- DeMar DeRozan rest−46 Elo
- Nikola Vucevic rest−17 Elo
Wizards
−6 Elo- Tyus Jones back−3 Elo
- Richaun Holmes left toe−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 1–1 WSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.