Golden State Warriors at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Buddy HieldPoints22
- Stephen CurryAssists10
- Stephen CurryRebounds9
Trail Blazers- Scoot HendersonPoints22
- Scoot HendersonAssists4
- Deandre AytonRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game140–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter140–104
- Q413.1Duop Reath lost ball turnover (Gary Payton II steals)140–104
- Q414.2Duop Reath offensive rebound140–104
- Q416.0Duop Reath misses 5-foot hook shot140–104
- Q424.1Lindy Waters III makes 22-foot three point jumper (Moses Moody assists)140–104
- Q432.0Brandin Podziemski offensive rebound137–104
- Q435.1Moses Moody misses 27-foot three point jumper137–104
- Q446.0Dalano Banton makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot (Duop Reath assists)137–104
- Q457.1Gary Payton II makes 1-foot layup (Gui Santos assists)137–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:42Anfernee Simons makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jerami Grant assists)GS 1 – 8 POR · POR 37% → 43% +6POR 37% → 43%+6 pts
- Q11:54Buddy Hield makes 27-foot three pointerGS 18 – 18 POR · GS 63% → 69% +6GS 63% → 69%+6 pts
- Q29:19Moses Moody makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jonathan Kuminga assists)GS 27 – 23 POR · GS 70% → 76% +6GS 70% → 76%+6 pts
- Q28:08De'Anthony Melton makes 24-foot three point jumper (Andrew Wiggins assists)GS 30 – 29 POR · GS 63% → 70% +7GS 63% → 70%+7 pts
- Q25:13Draymond Green makes 23-foot three point jumper (Buddy Hield assists)GS 39 – 37 POR · GS 65% → 72% +7GS 65% → 72%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- GS -7.5
- ML GS -290 / POR +235
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -6
- GS 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- GS: Elo 72.6%, market 71.4%
- Fair odds
- GS -249
- POR +249 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 115.0 – 107.5 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1562 | 1405 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +9 | −39 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Robert Williams III −4 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +169 Elo | GS 72.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 66.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 67.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 71.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.8 | Points scored | 106.429th of 30 |
| 18th of 30115.2 | Points allowed | 115.419th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.6 | Margin | −9.027th of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.5 | Offense rating | 106.229th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.0 | Defense rating | 115.223rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.0 | Pace | 99.119th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 5th of 3025–16 | Road vs home | 11–3026th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−39 Elo- Robert Williams III left hamstring strain−4 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
GS 4–0 POR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.