Portland Trail Blazers at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Dalano BantonPoints17
- Dalano BantonAssists7
- Kris MurrayRebounds18
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints24
- Domantas SabonisAssists9
- Domantas SabonisRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game82–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter82–121
- Q410.0Colby Jones makes 7-foot two point shot82–121
- Q429.1JaVale McGee defensive rebound82–119
- Q433.1Kris Murray misses 25-foot three point jumper82–119
- Q451.0Jalen Slawson makes 11-foot pullup jump shot (JaVale McGee assists)82–119
- Q41:03JaVale McGee defensive rebound82–117
- Q41:07Justin Minaya misses 25-foot three point jumper82–117
- Q41:13Colby Jones makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot82–117
- Q41:29Rayan Rupert makes free throw 2 of 282–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:23Harrison Barnes makes 1-foot layup (Domantas Sabonis assists)POR 2 – 2 SAC · SAC 71% → 74% +4SAC 71% → 74%+4 pts
- Q111:00Keon Ellis makes 25-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)POR 2 – 5 SAC · SAC 74% → 79% +5SAC 74% → 79%+5 pts
- Q110:09Keegan Murray makes 25-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)POR 4 – 8 SAC · SAC 76% → 80% +5SAC 76% → 80%+5 pts
- Q16:37Duop Reath makes 25-foot three point jumper (Taze Moore assists)POR 11 – 16 SAC · POR 15% → 19% +4POR 15% → 19%+4 pts
- Q14:43Davion Mitchell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Trey Lyles assists)POR 11 – 23 SAC · SAC 87% → 90% +3SAC 87% → 90%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -8.5
- SAC 80%
- Fair odds
- SAC -289
- POR +289 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 105.5 – 113.6 SAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1351 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −36 | −3 | POR: Missing Anfernee Simons −11 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · SAC: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +243 Elo | SAC 80.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 73.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 74.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30106.7 | Points scored | 116.59th of 30 |
| 19th of 30115.3 | Points allowed | 115.218th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.7 | Margin | +1.317th of 30 |
| 29th of 30106.5 | Offense rating | 114.913th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.1 | Defense rating | 113.618th of 30 |
| 19th of 3099.1 | Pace | 100.514th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 25th of 3010–30 | Road vs home | 23–1716th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−36 Elo- Anfernee Simons left knee tendinitis−11 Elo
Kings
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
POR 1–1 SAC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.