New Orleans Pelicans at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- CJ McCollumPoints27
- Brandon IngramAssists6
- Brandon IngramRebounds8
Trail Blazers- Jerami GrantPoints28
- Scoot HendersonAssists7
- Deandre AytonRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–125
- Q421.2Rayan Rupert defensive rebound103–125
- Q424.0Antonio Reeves misses 22-foot three point jumper103–125
- Q431.1Jabari Walker makes free throw 2 of 2103–125
- Q431.1Jabari Walker makes free throw 1 of 2103–124
- Q431.1Karlo Matkovic shooting foul103–123
- Q436.1Karlo Matkovic bad pass (Rayan Rupert steals)103–123
- Q437.0Karlo Matkovic offensive rebound103–123
- Q444.1Antonio Reeves misses 5-foot two point shot103–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:27Deandre Ayton makes 25-foot three point jumper (Scoot Henderson assists)NO 17 – 24 POR · POR 42% → 49% +7POR 42% → 49%+7 pts
- Q210:37Scoot Henderson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jerami Grant assists)NO 29 – 31 POR · POR 32% → 39% +7POR 32% → 39%+7 pts
- Q25:48Anfernee Simons makes three point step back jumpshotNO 35 – 47 POR · POR 58% → 66% +8POR 58% → 66%+8 pts
- Q22:32Jerami Grant makes 24-foot three point jumper (Anfernee Simons assists)NO 43 – 54 POR · POR 58% → 66% +8POR 58% → 66%+8 pts
- Q39:02Herbert Jones makes 25-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)NO 54 – 67 POR · NO 17% → 24% +7NO 17% → 24%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pelicans 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- NO -6.5
- ML NO -250 / POR +205
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -4.5
- NO 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- NO: Elo 67.2%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- NO -218
- POR +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 113.5 – 107.0 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1390 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −23 | −38 | NO: Weaker than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Robert Williams III −4 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +125 Elo | NO 67.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 66.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 66.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NO 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30115.1 | Points scored | 106.429th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.7 | Points allowed | 115.419th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.4 | Margin | −9.027th of 30 |
| 10th of 30115.6 | Offense rating | 106.229th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 115.223rd of 30 |
| 17th of 3099.4 | Pace | 99.119th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 1st of 3028–14 | Road vs home | 11–3026th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
−23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−38 Elo- Robert Williams III left hamstring strain−4 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NO 4–0 POR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.