Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Domantas SabonisPoints29
- Domantas SabonisAssists10
- Domantas SabonisRebounds12
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints32
- LeBron JamesAssists10
- LeBron JamesRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–131
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–131
- Q43.1De'Aaron Fox lost ball turnover (Gabe Vincent steals)127–131
- Q410.1Gabe Vincent enters the game for D'Angelo Russell127–131
- Q410.1Kings Full timeout127–131
- Q410.1Anthony Davis makes free throw 2 of 2127–131
- Q410.1Lakers offensive team rebound127–130
- Q410.1Anthony Davis misses free throw 1 of 2127–130
- Q410.1Malik Monk personal take foul127–130
- Q411.0Lakers Full timeout127–130
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q334.1De'Aaron Fox makes 26-foot three point shot (Malik Monk assists)SAC 91 – 87 LAL · SAC 54% → 65% +12SAC 54% → 65%+12 pts
- Q411:22LeBron James makes 29-foot three point shot (Rui Hachimura assists)SAC 94 – 93 LAL · LAL 34% → 46% +12LAL 34% → 46%+12 pts
- Q49:58LeBron James makes 28-foot three point jumper (D'Angelo Russell assists)SAC 94 – 101 LAL · LAL 68% → 79% +11LAL 68% → 79%+11 pts
- Q455.1Malik Monk makes two point shotSAC 123 – 125 LAL · SAC 7% → 22% +16SAC 7% → 22%+16 pts
- Q437.1Anthony Davis makes 26-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)SAC 123 – 128 LAL · LAL 82% → 99% +17LAL 82% → 99%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -0.5
- ML SAC -105 / LAL -115
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -1
- LAL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.8 pts
- LAL: Elo 54.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- LAL -104
- SAC +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 115.0 – 115.5 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | LAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +49 | +49 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +34 Elo | LAL 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 51.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30116.6 | Points scored | 118.16th of 30 |
| 17th of 30114.8 | Points allowed | 117.323rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30+1.7 | Margin | +0.819th of 30 |
| 13th of 30114.9 | Offense rating | 114.115th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.2 | Defense rating | 113.416th of 30 |
| 14th of 30100.5 | Pace | 102.64th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 12th of 3022–19 | Road vs home | 28–147th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SAC 4–0 LAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.