Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints30
- Bradley BealAssists9
- Mason PlumleeRebounds7
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints35
- Austin ReavesAssists8
- Anthony DavisRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–123
- Q44.1Devin Booker makes layup (Royce O'Neale assists)116–123
- Q415.0shot clock turnover114–123
- Q437.1Anthony Davis defensive rebound114–123
- Q441.0Bradley Beal misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot114–123
- Q445.2LeBron James makes free throw 2 of 2114–123
- Q445.2LeBron James makes free throw 1 of 2114–122
- Q445.2Bradley Beal personal take foul114–121
- Q456.2Bradley Beal makes 26-foot three pointer (Kevin Durant assists)114–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:35Kevin Durant makes 28-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)PHX 74 – 70 LAL · PHX 52% → 62% +10PHX 52% → 62%+10 pts
- Q33:58Tyus Jones makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kevin Durant assists)PHX 79 – 74 LAL · PHX 56% → 66% +10PHX 56% → 66%+10 pts
- Q31:35Gabe Vincent makes 22-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)PHX 81 – 82 LAL · LAL 43% → 55% +12LAL 43% → 55%+12 pts
- Q410:05Austin Reaves makes 28-foot running pullup jump shotPHX 87 – 94 LAL · LAL 68% → 79% +11LAL 68% → 79%+11 pts
- Q46:56Tyus Jones makes 23-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)PHX 95 – 101 LAL · PHX 10% → 20% +9PHX 10% → 20%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -1.5
- ML PHX +100 / LAL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -4
- LAL 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +14.0 pts
- LAL: Elo 66.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- LAL -109
- PHX +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 113.0 – 114.5 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −11 | +53 | PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +117 Elo | LAL 66.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 63.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 63.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30116.2 | Points scored | 118.16th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.2 | Points allowed | 117.323rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+3.1 | Margin | +0.819th of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.6 | Offense rating | 114.115th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.5 | Defense rating | 113.416th of 30 |
| 15th of 30100.0 | Pace | 102.64th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 7th of 3024–17 | Road vs home | 28–147th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHX 2–3 LAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.