Minnesota Timberwolves at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints27
- Julius RandleAssists4
- Rudy GobertRebounds14
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints36
- D'Angelo RussellAssists5
- Anthony DavisRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–110
- Q417.0LeBron James defensive rebound103–110
- Q419.1LeBron James blocks Julius Randle 's 3-foot driving layup103–110
- Q423.1LeBron James out of bounds bad pass turnover103–110
- Q423.1Julius Randle makes tip shot103–110
- Q423.1Julius Randle offensive rebound101–110
- Q425.1Naz Reid misses 25-foot three point jumper101–110
- Q427.0Naz Reid enters the game for Rudy Gobert101–110
- Q427.0Timberwolves Full timeout101–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q149.1Naz Reid makes 27-foot jump bank shot (Donte DiVincenzo assists)MIN 21 – 22 LAL · MIN 41% → 48% +7MIN 41% → 48%+7 pts
- Q211:14Julius Randle makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotMIN 26 – 24 LAL · MIN 48% → 55% +7MIN 48% → 55%+7 pts
- Q410:38Naz Reid makes 24-foot three point shot (Jaden McDaniels assists)MIN 81 – 85 LAL · MIN 22% → 33% +11MIN 22% → 33%+11 pts
- Q49:32D'Angelo Russell makes 5-foot driving floating jump shotMIN 81 – 87 LAL · LAL 68% → 76% +8LAL 68% → 76%+8 pts
- Q48:20Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot three pointerMIN 84 – 91 LAL · MIN 11% → 19% +9MIN 11% → 19%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -1.5
- ML MIN -110 / LAL -110
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -2.5
- LAL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.4 pts
- LAL: Elo 59.4%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- LAL -100
- MIN -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 112.5 – 111.0 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1579 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −17 | +52 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +66 Elo | LAL 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 62.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 61.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30113.0 | Points scored | 118.16th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.5 | Points allowed | 117.323rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+6.5 | Margin | +0.819th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.7 | Offense rating | 114.115th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.2 | Defense rating | 113.416th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3098.8 | Pace | 102.64th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3026–15 | Road vs home | 28–147th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+52 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 3–1 LAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.