Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints33
- Luka DoncicAssists8
- Dereck Lively IIRebounds11
Timberwolves- Jaden McDanielsPoints24
- Anthony EdwardsAssists8
- Anthony EdwardsRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–105
- Q40.1Kyrie Irving defensive rebound108–105
- Q41.1Mike Conley misses free throw 3 of 3108–105
- Q41.1Daniel Gafford enters the game for Josh Green108–105
- Q41.1Dereck Lively II enters the game for Derrick Jones Jr.108–105
- Q41.1Rudy Gobert enters the game for Kyle Anderson108–105
- Q41.1Timberwolves offensive team rebound108–105
- Q41.1Mike Conley misses free throw 2 of 3108–105
- Q41.1Mike Conley makes free throw 1 of 3108–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:39Karl-Anthony Towns makes 28-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)DAL 98 – 99 MIN · MIN 38% → 58% +20MIN 38% → 58%+20 pts
- Q43:37Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot three pointerDAL 98 – 102 MIN · MIN 59% → 79% +20MIN 59% → 79%+20 pts
- Q43:14Luka Doncic makes 25-foot step back jumpshot (Dereck Lively II assists)DAL 101 – 102 MIN · DAL 20% → 41% +21DAL 20% → 41%+21 pts
- Q41:56P.J. Washington makes 23-foot three point shot (Kyrie Irving assists)DAL 104 – 102 MIN · DAL 39% → 69% +30DAL 39% → 69%+30 pts
- Q449.0Luka Doncic makes 14-foot step back jumpshotDAL 106 – 102 MIN · DAL 78% → 94% +16DAL 78% → 94%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -2.5
- MIN 60%
- Fair odds
- MIN -123
- DAL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 104.4 – 106.0 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1612 | 1667 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +27 | +16 | DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | MIN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +68 Elo | MIN 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 55.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.9 | Points scored | 113.018th of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.6 | Points allowed | 106.51st of 30 |
| 14th of 30+2.2 | Margin | +6.53rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30115.6 | Offense rating | 113.716th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.5 | Defense rating | 107.21st of 30 |
| 6th of 30101.8 | Pace | 98.822nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 5th of 3025–16 | Road vs home | 30–115th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 1–3 MIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.