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Minnesota Timberwolves at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast

FinalDAL leads series 3-1

Away

Timberwolves

56-26

105–100

at

Home

Mavericks

50-32

MIN 44%DAL 56%

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American Airlines Center · TNT

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.

DAL favored MIN favored107 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4DAL50%MIN

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Timberwolves
Mavericks

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game105–100
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–100
  • Q40.0(00:00.2) [Timberwolves] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)105–100
  • Q40.0Mavericks offensive team rebound105–100
  • Q40.1Naz Reid blocks Luka Doncic 's 5-foot two point shot105–100
  • Q41.1Luka Doncic offensive rebound105–100
  • Q44.1P.J. Washington misses 25-foot three point jumper105–100
  • Q47.1P.J. Washington offensive rebound105–100
  • Q49.2Luka Doncic misses 25-foot three point jumper105–100
  • Q411.1Daniel Gafford enters the game for Josh Green105–100

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q411:44Jaden Hardy makes 23-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)MIN 78 – 76 DAL · DAL 32% → 44% +12
  2. Q47:08P.J. Washington makes 24-foot three point jumper (Derrick Jones Jr. assists)MIN 86 – 86 DAL · DAL 36% → 52% +16
  3. Q45:41Karl-Anthony Towns makes 26-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 92 – 90 DAL · MIN 42% → 60% +18
  4. Q45:05Karl-Anthony Towns makes 23-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 95 – 90 DAL · MIN 61% → 77% +17
  5. Q42:54Karl-Anthony Towns makes 25-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 98 – 92 DAL · MIN 73% → 89% +17

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.

Mavericks 56%

LeanMiss
MIN 44%DAL 56%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
DAL 56%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
DAL -0.5
DAL 53%
Fair odds
DAL -125
MIN +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
MIN 105.2 – 106.9 DAL
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorMINDALWhy
Team rating16451633Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+4−2MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Usual rotation (from the box score)
Elo ratingsDAL +18 EloDAL 52.6%
Market-implied ratingsDAL 55.8%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastDAL 55.5%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Minnesota Timberwolves and Dallas Mavericks compared, with each team's league rank
MINStatDAL
18th of 30113.0Points scored117.97th of 30
1st of 30106.5Points allowed115.620th of 30
3rd of 30+6.5Margin+2.214th of 30
16th of 30113.7Offense rating115.68th of 30
1st of 30107.2Defense rating113.518th of 30
22nd of 3098.8Pace101.86th of 30
10th of 306–4Last 107–33rd of 30
3rd of 3026–15Road vs home25–1612th of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Timberwolves

+4 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Mavericks

−2 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

TimberwolvesMavericks
1300140015001600league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Head to head

MIN 3–4 DAL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.