Minnesota Timberwolves at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints26
- Anthony EdwardsAssists9
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds11
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints33
- Luka DoncicAssists5
- P.J. WashingtonRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–116
- Q415.1Anthony Edwards makes driving layup107–116
- Q427.0Kyrie Irving makes free throw 2 of 2105–116
- Q427.0Jaden Hardy enters the game for Luka Doncic105–115
- Q427.0Kyrie Irving makes free throw 1 of 2105–115
- Q427.0Mike Conley personal foul105–114
- Q430.0Kyrie Irving defensive rebound105–114
- Q433.1Karl-Anthony Towns misses 26-foot three point jumper105–114
- Q434.1Naz Reid enters the game for Rudy Gobert105–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:57Kyrie Irving makes 26-foot running pullup jump shotMIN 92 – 92 DAL · DAL 39% → 52% +14DAL 39% → 52%+14 pts
- Q48:47Luka Doncic makes 25-foot step back jumpshotMIN 94 – 97 DAL · DAL 52% → 66% +14DAL 52% → 66%+14 pts
- Q44:35Kyrie Irving makes 6-foot two point shot (P.J. Washington assists)MIN 104 – 104 DAL · DAL 38% → 52% +13DAL 38% → 52%+13 pts
- Q43:38P.J. Washington makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kyrie Irving assists)MIN 104 – 107 DAL · DAL 51% → 73% +21DAL 51% → 73%+21 pts
- Q42:16Luka Doncic makes 11-foot two point shotMIN 105 – 109 DAL · DAL 69% → 84% +14DAL 69% → 84%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- DAL 51%
- Fair odds
- DAL -122
- MIN +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 104.8 – 106.3 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1655 | 1624 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +6 | +6 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +5 Elo | DAL 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 54.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30113.0 | Points scored | 117.97th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.5 | Points allowed | 115.620th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+6.5 | Margin | +2.214th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.7 | Offense rating | 115.68th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.2 | Defense rating | 113.518th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3098.8 | Pace | 101.86th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3026–15 | Road vs home | 25–1612th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 3–3 DAL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.