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Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast

FinalDAL wins series 4-1

Away

Mavericks

50-32

124–103

at

Home

Timberwolves

56-26

DAL 45%MIN 55%

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Target Center · TNT

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.

MIN favored DAL favored118 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4MIN50%DAL

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Mavericks
Timberwolves

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game124–103
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–103
  • Q40.0Leonard Miller offensive rebound124–103
  • Q41.2Wendell Moore Jr. misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot124–103
  • Q45.0shot clock turnover124–103
  • Q429.1Wendell Moore Jr. makes 27-foot three point shot124–103
  • Q435.1A.J. Lawson makes free throw 2 of 2124–100
  • Q435.1Mavericks offensive team rebound123–100
  • Q435.1A.J. Lawson misses free throw 1 of 2123–100
  • Q435.1Wendell Moore Jr. shooting foul123–100

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q111:02Luka Doncic makes 31-foot three point jumper (Kyrie Irving assists)DAL 5 – 4 MIN · DAL 41% → 47% +6
  2. Q110:06Luka Doncic makes 28-foot step back jumpshotDAL 10 – 6 MIN · DAL 47% → 53% +6
  3. Q16:10Mike Conley makes 23-foot three point jumper (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)DAL 16 – 15 MIN · MIN 46% → 53% +7
  4. Q13:02Luka Doncic makes 32-foot three pointerDAL 27 – 18 MIN · DAL 59% → 66% +7
  5. Q12:24Luka Doncic makes 25-foot three pointerDAL 30 – 18 MIN · DAL 66% → 72% +6

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.

Timberwolves 55%

LeanMiss
DAL 45%MIN 55%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
MIN 55%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
MIN -2
MIN 59%
Fair odds
MIN -124
DAL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
DAL 104.9 – 106.6 MIN
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorDALMINWhy
Team rating16261653Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+4+2DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Usual rotation (from the box score)
Elo ratingsMIN +61 EloMIN 58.6%
Market-implied ratingsMIN 54.9%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastMIN 55.3%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Dallas Mavericks and Minnesota Timberwolves compared, with each team's league rank
DALStatMIN
7th of 30117.9Points scored113.018th of 30
20th of 30115.6Points allowed106.51st of 30
14th of 30+2.2Margin+6.53rd of 30
8th of 30115.6Offense rating113.716th of 30
18th of 30113.5Defense rating107.21st of 30
6th of 30101.8Pace98.822nd of 30
3rd of 307–3Last 106–410th of 30
5th of 3025–16Road vs home30–115th of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Mavericks

+4 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Timberwolves

+2 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

MavericksTimberwolves
1300140015001600league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Head to head

DAL 4–4 MIN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.