Minnesota Timberwolves at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Julius RandlePoints33
- Julius RandleAssists4
- Naz ReidRebounds13
Kings- DeMar DeRozanPoints26
- De'Aaron FoxAssists11
- Keegan MurrayRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–115
- Q40.0Kings offensive team rebound117–115
- Q40.0Keegan Murray misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot117–115
- Q42.1Nickeil Alexander-Walker enters the game for Julius Randle117–115
- Q42.1Naz Reid enters the game for Rudy Gobert117–115
- Q42.1Malik Monk enters the game for Alex Len117–115
- Q42.1Kings Full timeout117–115
- Q42.1Anthony Edwards makes free throw 2 of 2117–115
- Q42.1Alex Len enters the game for Malik Monk116–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:15Domantas Sabonis makes 24-foot three point jumper (Malik Monk assists)MIN 110 – 108 SAC · SAC 19% → 37% +17SAC 19% → 37%+17 pts
- Q41:28Anthony Edwards makes 23-foot step back jumpshotMIN 114 – 112 SAC · MIN 50% → 72% +22MIN 50% → 72%+22 pts
- Q453.1Malik Monk makes driving layupMIN 114 – 114 SAC · SAC 22% → 50% +28SAC 22% → 50%+28 pts
- Q438.0Rudy Gobert makes free throw 1 of 2MIN 115 – 115 SAC · MIN 32% → 50% +17MIN 32% → 50%+17 pts
- Q42.1Anthony Edwards makes free throw 1 of 2MIN 116 – 115 SAC · MIN 50% → 97% +47MIN 50% → 97%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -0.5
- ML MIN -105 / SAC -115
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -2
- SAC 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.2 pts
- SAC: Elo 57.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- SAC -104
- MIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 110.5 – 111.0 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1573 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −17 | +51 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +51 Elo | SAC 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 56.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30113.0 | Points scored | 116.69th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.5 | Points allowed | 114.817th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+6.5 | Margin | +1.717th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.7 | Offense rating | 114.913th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.2 | Defense rating | 113.215th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3098.8 | Pace | 100.514th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3026–15 | Road vs home | 24–1716th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
+51 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 1–2 SAC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.