LA Clippers at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Ivica ZubacPoints23
- James HardenAssists11
- Ivica ZubacRebounds18
Warriors- Andrew WigginsPoints29
- Stephen CurryAssists6
- Kevon LooneyRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–104
- Q414.1Amir Coffey defensive rebound112–104
- Q416.1Buddy Hield misses tip shot112–104
- Q416.1Buddy Hield offensive rebound112–104
- Q417.2Brandin Podziemski misses 22-foot three point step back jumpshot112–104
- Q422.1Moses Moody offensive rebound112–104
- Q425.1Brandin Podziemski misses two point shot112–104
- Q432.0Amir Coffey makes free throw 2 of 2112–104
- Q432.0Lindy Waters III enters the game for Andrew Wiggins111–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:47Andrew Wiggins makes 25-foot three pointerLAC 101 – 100 GS · GS 29% → 51% +21GS 29% → 51%+21 pts
- Q43:27James Harden makes layupLAC 103 – 100 GS · LAC 50% → 65% +15LAC 50% → 65%+15 pts
- Q43:01Norman Powell makes 20-foot jumper (Ivica Zubac assists)LAC 105 – 100 GS · LAC 67% → 81% +13LAC 67% → 81%+13 pts
- Q42:47Andrew Wiggins makes 19-foot step back jumpshotLAC 105 – 102 GS · GS 18% → 32% +14GS 18% → 32%+14 pts
- Q42:21Ivica Zubac makes 5-foot driving dunk (James Harden assists)LAC 107 – 102 GS · LAC 71% → 85% +14LAC 71% → 85%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- GS -9.5
- ML LAC +300 / GS -400
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -10
- GS 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.8 pts
- GS: Elo 83.0%, market 76.2%
- Fair odds
- GS -320
- LAC +320 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 106.0 – 115.5 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1589 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | LAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −110 | +23 | LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +275 Elo | GS 83.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 79.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 79.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 76.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30115.6 | Points scored | 117.88th of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.3 | Points allowed | 115.218th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+3.3 | Margin | +2.612th of 30 |
| 4th of 30116.7 | Offense rating | 115.511th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.4 | Defense rating | 113.014th of 30 |
| 20th of 3099.0 | Pace | 101.012th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 3rd of 3026–15 | Road vs home | 21–2019th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−110 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAC 3–1 GS in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.