Golden State Warriors at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Buddy HieldPoints27
- Buddy HieldAssists6
- Andrew WigginsRebounds13
Jazz- John CollinsPoints14
- John CollinsAssists4
- Walker KesslerRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–86
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–86
- Q41.0shot clock turnover127–86
- Q423.1Gui Santos defensive rebound127–86
- Q426.2Keyonte George misses 25-foot three point jumper127–86
- Q428.0Lindy Waters III vs. Brice Sensabaugh (Keyonte George gains possession)127–86
- Q439.1Brandin Podziemski makes tip shot127–86
- Q439.1Brandin Podziemski offensive rebound125–86
- Q442.1Moses Moody misses 25-foot three point jumper125–86
- Q455.1Lindy Waters III defensive rebound125–86
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:15Keyonte George makes 26-foot three point jumper (Lauri Markkanen assists)GS 4 – 13 UTAH · UTAH 44% → 50% +6UTAH 44% → 50%+6 pts
- Q16:05Buddy Hield makes 25-foot three pointer (Stephen Curry assists)GS 9 – 15 UTAH · GS 49% → 55% +7GS 49% → 55%+7 pts
- Q15:13Brice Sensabaugh makes 24-foot three point jumper (Keyonte George assists)GS 11 – 19 UTAH · UTAH 43% → 49% +7UTAH 43% → 49%+7 pts
- Q14:13Buddy Hield makes 26-foot three point jumper (Gary Payton II assists)GS 16 – 19 UTAH · GS 55% → 61% +7GS 55% → 61%+7 pts
- Q13:49Stephen Curry makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Buddy Hield assists)GS 19 – 19 UTAH · GS 61% → 68% +6GS 61% → 68%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- GS -6.5
- ML GS -260 / UTAH +210
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -5
- GS 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- GS: Elo 69.7%, market 69.1%
- Fair odds
- GS -224
- UTAH +224 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 120.5 – 114.0 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1574 | 1413 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +16 | −14 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | GS crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | GS +144 Elo | GS 69.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 63.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 63.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 69.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.8 | Points scored | 115.711th of 30 |
| 18th of 30115.2 | Points allowed | 120.529th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.6 | Margin | −4.923rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.5 | Offense rating | 113.218th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.0 | Defense rating | 118.029th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.0 | Pace | 101.58th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 5th of 3025–16 | Road vs home | 21–2019th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
GS 4–0 UTAH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.