Memphis Grizzlies at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Santi AldamaPoints27
- Ja MorantAssists10
- Santi AldamaRebounds5
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints35
- Jordan ClarksonAssists7
- Walker KesslerRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–124
- Q44.1Lauri Markkanen makes 27-foot three point jumper (Keyonte George assists)126–124
- Q46.0Collin Sexton enters the game for Walker Kessler126–121
- Q46.0Jazz Full timeout126–121
- Q46.0Desmond Bane makes free throw 2 of 2126–121
- Q46.0Desmond Bane makes free throw 1 of 2125–121
- Q46.0Keyonte George personal take foul124–121
- Q410.1Santi Aldama offensive rebound124–121
- Q413.1Desmond Bane misses 22-foot three point pullup jump shot124–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:05Desmond Bane makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Santi Aldama assists)MEM 107 – 105 UTAH · MEM 46% → 63% +17MEM 46% → 63%+17 pts
- Q42:48Walker Kessler makes tip shotMEM 116 – 116 UTAH · UTAH 32% → 49% +17UTAH 32% → 49%+17 pts
- Q42:34Santi Aldama makes 2-foot layup (Ja Morant assists)MEM 118 – 116 UTAH · MEM 51% → 68% +17MEM 51% → 68%+17 pts
- Q41:58Santi Aldama makes 3-foot dunk (Ja Morant assists)MEM 120 – 117 UTAH · MEM 61% → 79% +18MEM 61% → 79%+18 pts
- Q41:08Marcus Smart makes two point shotMEM 122 – 118 UTAH · MEM 76% → 92% +16MEM 76% → 92%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -2.5
- ML MEM -135 / UTAH +115
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH -0.5
- MEM 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.1 pts
- MEM: Elo 47.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- MEM -124
- UTAH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 116.0 – 113.5 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1406 | 1418 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +9 | −19 | MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +20 Elo | UTAH 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 51.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30105.8 | Points scored | 115.711th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.8 | Points allowed | 120.529th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.0 | Margin | −4.923rd of 30 |
| 30th of 30105.3 | Offense rating | 113.218th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.3 | Defense rating | 118.029th of 30 |
| 16th of 3099.9 | Pace | 101.58th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 19th of 3018–23 | Road vs home | 21–2019th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MEM 1–2 UTAH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.