Brooklyn Nets at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Jalen WilsonPoints16
- Tyrese MartinAssists4
- Day'Ron SharpeRebounds14
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints23
- James HardenAssists11
- Ivica ZubacRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game67–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter67–126
- Q41.0Mo Bamba defensive rebound67–126
- Q43.1Dariq Whitehead misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot67–126
- Q412.0shot clock turnover67–126
- Q436.1Amir Coffey defensive rebound67–126
- Q438.1Dariq Whitehead misses 13-foot pullup jump shot67–126
- Q447.0Clippers offensive team rebound67–126
- Q447.0Jordan Miller makes free throw 3 of 367–126
- Q447.0Jordan Miller misses free throw 2 of 367–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:18James Harden makes 25-foot three pointer (Ivica Zubac assists)BKN 12 – 16 LAC · LAC 91% → 93% +3LAC 91% → 93%+3 pts
- Q211:14Jalen Wilson makes driving layupBKN 23 – 21 LAC · BKN 12% → 15% +3BKN 12% → 15%+3 pts
- Q210:47Terance Mann makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nicolas Batum assists)BKN 23 – 24 LAC · LAC 85% → 89% +4LAC 85% → 89%+4 pts
- Q210:22Jalen Wilson makes 7-foot driving floating jump shotBKN 25 – 24 LAC · BKN 11% → 14% +3BKN 11% → 14%+3 pts
- Q28:21Amir Coffey makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kris Dunn assists)BKN 27 – 32 LAC · LAC 89% → 92% +3LAC 89% → 92%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 91%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -15.5
- ML BKN +1000 / LAC -2000
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 88%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -11
- LAC 85%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- LAC: Elo 85.0%, market 91.3%
- Fair odds
- LAC -1048
- BKN +1048 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 99.0 – 114.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 213.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1406 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | BKN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −66 | +24 | BKN: Missing D'Angelo Russell −20, Cameron Johnson −19 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +301 Elo | LAC 85.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 88.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 88.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 91.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30107.9 | Points scored | 108.923rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.7 | Points allowed | 108.15th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−5.8 | Margin | +0.814th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30108.9 | Offense rating | 108.823rd of 30 |
| 25th of 30114.8 | Defense rating | 108.05th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.2 | Pace | 99.821st of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 22nd of 309–14 | Road vs home | 13–65th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−66 Elo- D'Angelo Russell right shin contusion−20 Elo
- Cameron Johnson sprained ankle−19 Elo
Clippers
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–18 | 23–15 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 10–4 |
| Underdog | 20–15 | 13–11 |
| Overs–unders | 21–19 | 14–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 1–1 LAC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.