Brooklyn Nets at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Keon JohnsonPoints22
- Ben SimmonsAssists7
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds6
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints35
- Nikola JokicAssists15
- Nikola JokicRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–124
- Q46.1shot clock turnover105–124
- Q430.0Christian Braun defensive rebound105–124
- Q432.1Tosan Evbuomwan misses 26-foot three point jumper105–124
- Q433.1Reece Beekman offensive rebound105–124
- Q437.2Keon Johnson misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot105–124
- Q444.0Nikola Jokic makes tip shot105–124
- Q444.0Nikola Jokic offensive rebound105–122
- Q444.0Nikola Jokic misses driving layup105–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:45Noah Clowney makes 26-foot three point jumper (Keon Johnson assists)BKN 20 – 12 DEN · BKN 20% → 25% +5BKN 20% → 25%+5 pts
- Q211:44Julian Strawther makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)BKN 36 – 35 DEN · DEN 78% → 83% +5DEN 78% → 83%+5 pts
- Q26:40Ziaire Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ben Simmons assists)BKN 46 – 40 DEN · BKN 23% → 29% +6BKN 23% → 29%+6 pts
- Q48:18Reece Beekman makes 22-foot three point shot (Tyrese Martin assists)BKN 92 – 97 DEN · BKN 7% → 13% +6BKN 7% → 13%+6 pts
- Q46:22Keon Johnson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ben Simmons assists)BKN 95 – 101 DEN · BKN 4% → 10% +6BKN 4% → 10%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 88%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -14.5
- ML BKN +700 / DEN -1200
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 89%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -12.5
- DEN 88%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- DEN: Elo 88.1%, market 88.1%
- Fair odds
- DEN -738
- BKN +738 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 105.0 – 119.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1395 | 1601 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −85 | +21 | BKN: Missing Cameron Johnson −18, D'Angelo Russell −16 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +347 Elo | DEN 88.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 89.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 89.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 88.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30107.2 | Points scored | 120.53rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.5 | Points allowed | 116.924th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.2 | Margin | +3.68th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30108.5 | Offense rating | 115.94th of 30 |
| 25th of 30114.8 | Defense rating | 112.419th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.2 | Pace | 102.75th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 22nd of 308–12 | Road vs home | 11–712th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−85 Elo- Cameron Johnson right ankle sprain−18 Elo
- D'Angelo Russell right shin contusion−16 Elo
Nuggets
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–17 | 16–20 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 9–16 |
| Underdog | 18–14 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders | 18–19 | 22–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 0–3 DEN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.