Denver Nuggets at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints46
- Nikola JokicAssists10
- Michael Porter Jr.Rebounds10
Spurs- Harrison BarnesPoints22
- Chris PaulAssists8
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds23
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game122–111
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime122–111
- OT15.1Nikola Jokic defensive rebound122–111
- OT18.1Julian Champagnie misses 26-foot three point jumper122–111
- OT24.1Michael Porter Jr. makes 27-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)122–111
- OT32.0Russell Westbrook defensive rebound119–111
- OT34.1Victor Wembanyama misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot119–111
- OT42.1Spurs Full timeout119–111
- OT42.1Nikola Jokic makes two point shot (Jamal Murray assists)119–111
- OT58.2Peyton Watson defensive rebound117–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:10Nikola Jokic makes 27-foot three point jumper (Julian Strawther assists)DEN 98 – 99 SA · DEN 28% → 46% +18DEN 28% → 46%+18 pts
- Q44:06Michael Porter Jr. makes 27-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 101 – 102 SA · DEN 26% → 45% +20DEN 26% → 45%+20 pts
- Q42:30Jeremy Sochan makes dunkDEN 104 – 106 SA · SA 48% → 66% +18SA 48% → 66%+18 pts
- Q41:47Russell Westbrook makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 107 – 106 SA · DEN 31% → 62% +31DEN 31% → 62%+31 pts
- Q414.0Devin Vassell makes tip shotDEN 108 – 108 SA · SA 7% → 49% +43SA 7% → 49%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -3.5
- ML DEN -150 / SA +125
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -1
- DEN 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- DEN: Elo 54.8%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- DEN -135
- SA +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 120.0 – 116.5 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1572 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | SA and DEN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +20 | +45 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | DEN crossed 1 time zone and SA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +33 Elo | DEN 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 56.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30120.7 | Points scored | 111.518th of 30 |
| 24th of 30117.4 | Points allowed | 111.113th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+3.3 | Margin | +0.416th of 30 |
| 4th of 30116.0 | Offense rating | 110.516th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.8 | Defense rating | 110.211th of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.0 | Pace | 100.716th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 7th of 309–8 | Road vs home | 12–710th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–19 | 19–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 8–16 | 8–5 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 11–10 |
| Overs–unders | 21–12 | 17–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 3–2 SA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.