Atlanta Hawks at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints30
- Trae YoungAssists9
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds7
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints23
- Nikola JokicAssists15
- Nikola JokicRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–139
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–139
- Q42.1shot clock turnover120–139
- Q427.1Dominick Barlow makes 2-foot two point shot (Vit Krejci assists)120–139
- Q445.0Spencer Jones makes 16-foot pullup jump shot (Jalen Pickett assists)118–139
- Q454.2David Roddy makes 22-foot three point step back jumpshot (Dominick Barlow assists)118–137
- Q41:02Dominick Barlow defensive rebound115–137
- Q41:04Zeke Nnaji misses layup115–137
- Q41:12Garrison Mathews personal foul115–137
- Q41:27Zaccharie Risacher out of bounds lost ball turnover115–137
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:29De'Andre Hunter makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Dyson Daniels assists)ATL 55 – 55 DEN · ATL 24% → 30% +6ATL 24% → 30%+6 pts
- Q24:53Vit Krejci makes 26-foot three pointer (Dyson Daniels assists)ATL 62 – 57 DEN · ATL 35% → 43% +8ATL 35% → 43%+8 pts
- Q24:12Russell Westbrook makes 23-foot three point jumper (Julian Strawther assists)ATL 62 – 62 DEN · DEN 62% → 69% +7DEN 62% → 69%+7 pts
- Q311:11Michael Porter Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)ATL 73 – 77 DEN · DEN 70% → 78% +7DEN 70% → 78%+7 pts
- Q310:15Jamal Murray makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Russell Westbrook assists)ATL 75 – 82 DEN · DEN 77% → 84% +6DEN 77% → 84%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -8.5
- ML ATL +275 / DEN -350
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -4.5
- DEN 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.6 pts
- DEN: Elo 66.8%, market 74.5%
- Fair odds
- DEN -292
- ATL +292 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 119.0 – 127.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 246.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1571 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −9 | +17 | ATL: Missing Jalen Johnson −28, Bogdan Bogdanovic −7 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +122 Elo | DEN 66.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 69.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 69.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 74.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30117.8 | Points scored | 120.53rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30118.8 | Points allowed | 117.524th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +3.08th of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.0 | Offense rating | 115.94th of 30 |
| 17th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 113.120th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30105.6 | Pace | 102.85th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 8th of 308–7 | Road vs home | 9–513th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−9 Elo- Jalen Johnson right shoulder soreness−28 Elo
- Bogdan Bogdanovic left leg injury−7 Elo
Nuggets
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–18 | 13–18 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–11 | 7–15 |
| Underdog | 10–7 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 22–11 | 20–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 0–3 DEN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.