Atlanta Hawks at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints34
- Trae YoungAssists10
- Clint CapelaRebounds12
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints19
- Jamal SheadAssists6
- Scottie BarnesRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game136–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter136–107
- Q415.1Garrett Temple steps out of bounds turnover136–107
- Q416.1Raptors offensive team rebound136–107
- Q416.1Jonathan Mogbo misses 2-foot two point shot136–107
- Q439.0Keaton Wallace makes 27-foot three pointer136–107
- Q447.2Jamison Battle makes 11-foot pullup jump shot (Jamal Shead assists)133–107
- Q41:02Jonathan Mogbo defensive rebound133–105
- Q41:04David Roddy misses 25-foot three point jumper133–105
- Q41:12Vit Krejci defensive rebound133–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:11Garrison Mathews makes 24-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)ATL 30 – 23 TOR · ATL 59% → 66% +7ATL 59% → 66%+7 pts
- Q130.1De'Andre Hunter makes 22-foot three point jumper (Garrison Mathews assists)ATL 33 – 25 TOR · ATL 62% → 68% +7ATL 62% → 68%+7 pts
- Q25:52Jamal Shead makes 26-foot three point jumper (Gradey Dick assists)ATL 49 – 42 TOR · TOR 25% → 32% +7TOR 25% → 32%+7 pts
- Q20.0Chris Boucher makes 31-foot three point jumper (Kelly Olynyk assists)ATL 64 – 58 TOR · TOR 25% → 33% +8TOR 25% → 33%+8 pts
- Q311:08Zaccharie Risacher makes 24-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)ATL 69 – 62 TOR · ATL 62% → 70% +8ATL 62% → 70%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -1.5
- ML ATL -110 / TOR -110
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 40%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -2.5
- TOR 40%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.9 pts
- TOR: Elo 40.1%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- TOR -100
- ATL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 119.5 – 121.0 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1370 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | ATL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +15 | +7 | ATL: Missing Bogdan Bogdanovic −7 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | TOR crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ATL +70 Elo | ATL 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 60.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.3 | Points scored | 112.513th of 30 |
| 27th of 30119.2 | Points allowed | 118.526th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−1.9 | Margin | −6.025th of 30 |
| 15th of 30110.6 | Offense rating | 108.724th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.4 | Defense rating | 114.624th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30105.4 | Pace | 102.46th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 9th of 307–7 | Road vs home | 6–1022nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+15 Elo- Bogdan Bogdanovic left leg injury−7 Elo
Raptors
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–18 | 20–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–11 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 9–7 | 20–10 |
| Overs–unders | 21–11 | 16–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 2–2 TOR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.