Brooklyn Nets at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Cameron JohnsonPoints33
- Ben SimmonsAssists7
- Cameron JohnsonRebounds10
Raptors- Ochai AgbajiPoints20
- Scottie BarnesAssists6
- Gradey DickRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–94
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–94
- Q44.2Kelly Olynyk makes layup (Jamison Battle assists)101–94
- Q414.1Cameron Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2101–92
- Q414.1Cameron Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2100–92
- Q414.1Jamison Battle personal take foul99–92
- Q415.1Gradey Dick makes dunk (Scottie Barnes assists)99–92
- Q417.0Noah Clowney personal foul99–90
- Q422.1Cameron Johnson makes free throw 2 of 299–90
- Q422.1Cameron Johnson makes free throw 1 of 298–90
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:19Cameron Johnson makes 8-foot two point shotBKN 88 – 86 TOR · BKN 49% → 62% +14BKN 49% → 62%+14 pts
- Q44:08Ochai Agbaji makes 2-foot two point shot (Jonathan Mogbo assists)BKN 88 – 88 TOR · TOR 37% → 51% +14TOR 37% → 51%+14 pts
- Q42:46Scottie Barnes makes 6-foot pullup jump shotBKN 88 – 90 TOR · TOR 51% → 68% +17TOR 51% → 68%+17 pts
- Q42:24Cameron Johnson makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot (Ben Simmons assists)BKN 90 – 90 TOR · BKN 31% → 49% +18BKN 31% → 49%+18 pts
- Q41:50Cameron Johnson makes 25-foot three point shot (Ben Simmons assists)BKN 93 – 90 TOR · BKN 49% → 78% +29BKN 49% → 78%+29 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -2.5
- ML BKN +110 / TOR -130
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- TOR 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- TOR: Elo 50.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -119
- BKN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 108.0 – 110.5 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1441 | 1390 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −39 | −23 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · TOR: Missing RJ Barrett −23 (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +1 Elo | TOR 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 53.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30110.1 | Points scored | 112.316th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.3 | Points allowed | 117.325th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−5.2 | Margin | −4.924th of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.1 | Offense rating | 108.924th of 30 |
| 28th of 30116.3 | Defense rating | 113.721st of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.3 | Pace | 101.86th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 22nd of 305–9 | Road vs home | 6–820th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
−23 Elo- RJ Barrett illness−23 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 16–10 | 19–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | — |
| Underdog | 14–8 | 19–8 |
| Overs–unders | 14–12 | 13–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 3–1 TOR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.