Chicago Bulls at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Nikola VucevicPoints24
- Josh GiddeyAssists8
- Josh GiddeyRebounds9
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints32
- RJ BarrettAssists9
- Chris BoucherRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–121
- Q40.0(00:00) [Bulls] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)122–121
- Q40.0Jamal Shead makes 29-foot three point shot122–121
- Q44.0Talen Horton-Tucker makes free throw 2 of 2122–118
- Q44.0Patrick Williams enters the game for Nikola Vucevic121–118
- Q44.0Bulls offensive team rebound121–118
- Q44.0Talen Horton-Tucker misses free throw 1 of 2121–118
- Q44.0Gradey Dick personal foul121–118
- Q46.1Jamal Shead makes driving layup121–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:02Gradey Dick makes three point jumper (Jamal Shead assists)CHI 112 – 109 TOR · TOR 11% → 26% +16TOR 11% → 26%+16 pts
- Q42:28RJ Barrett makes 4-foot two point shotCHI 112 – 111 TOR · TOR 24% → 41% +16TOR 24% → 41%+16 pts
- Q41:53Coby White makes two point shotCHI 116 – 113 TOR · CHI 61% → 79% +18CHI 61% → 79%+18 pts
- Q41:08Lonzo Ball makes 25-foot three pointer (Talen Horton-Tucker assists)CHI 119 – 113 TOR · CHI 85% → 98% +13CHI 85% → 98%+13 pts
- Q458.2Gradey Dick makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jamal Shead assists)CHI 119 – 116 TOR · TOR 1% → 14% +12TOR 1% → 14%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bulls 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -1.5
- ML CHI -115 / TOR -105
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -2
- CHI 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.6 pts
- CHI: Elo 57.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CHI -104
- TOR +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 120.5 – 119.0 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1394 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +6 | −25 | CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CHI +54 Elo | CHI 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 53.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30118.7 | Points scored | 112.017th of 30 |
| 29th of 30121.9 | Points allowed | 117.125th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−3.2 | Margin | −5.125th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.1 | Offense rating | 108.922nd of 30 |
| 26th of 30115.1 | Defense rating | 113.821st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.9 | Pace | 101.512th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 7th of 307–6 | Road vs home | 6–720th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
−25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–12 | 18–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–0 | — |
| Underdog | 10–12 | 18–8 |
| Overs–unders | 15–11 | 12–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 2–2 TOR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.