Chicago Bulls at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Nikola VucevicPoints39
- Ayo DosunmuAssists11
- Ayo DosunmuRebounds10
Spurs- Keldon JohnsonPoints28
- Chris PaulAssists9
- Jeremy SochanRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game139–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter139–124
- Q41.2Jevon Carter defensive rebound139–124
- Q46.1Charles Bassey misses free throw 1 of 1139–124
- Q46.1Chris Duarte shooting foul139–124
- Q46.1Charles Bassey makes 5-foot dunk139–124
- Q417.1shot clock turnover139–122
- Q434.0Julian Phillips defensive rebound139–122
- Q440.1Julian Phillips blocks Sidy Cissoko 's 2-foot driving layup139–122
- Q447.0Charles Bassey defensive rebound139–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:50Julian Champagnie makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jeremy Sochan assists)CHI 3 – 3 SA · SA 48% → 54% +6SA 48% → 54%+6 pts
- Q18:16Ayo Dosunmu makes 27-foot three point jumper (Zach LaVine assists)CHI 12 – 5 SA · CHI 55% → 61% +6CHI 55% → 61%+6 pts
- Q14:55Julian Phillips makes 23-foot three point jumper (Zach LaVine assists)CHI 19 – 10 SA · CHI 59% → 66% +6CHI 59% → 66%+6 pts
- Q32:58Devin Vassell makes 24-foot three point shot (Chris Paul assists)CHI 97 – 89 SA · SA 17% → 25% +8SA 17% → 25%+8 pts
- Q32:33Matas Buzelis makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)CHI 100 – 89 SA · CHI 76% → 84% +8CHI 76% → 84%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- SA -1.5
- ML CHI +110 / SA -130
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- SA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- SA: Elo 49.3%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- SA -119
- CHI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 117.5 – 119.0 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +2 | −29 | CHI: Usual rotation · SA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | SA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CHI +5 Elo | CHI 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 53.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30118.9 | Points scored | 110.220th of 30 |
| 29th of 30123.2 | Points allowed | 110.49th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−4.3 | Margin | −0.217th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.2 | Offense rating | 110.219th of 30 |
| 28th of 30116.2 | Defense rating | 110.412th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30106.0 | Pace | 100.017th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–6 | Road vs home | 8–411th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
−29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–10 | 11–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–0 | 4–2 |
| Underdog | 9–10 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders | 13–9 | 10–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 3–0 SA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.