Chicago Bulls at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints21
- Josh GiddeyAssists8
- Nikola VucevicRebounds12
Wizards- Kyle KuzmaPoints23
- Bilal CoulibalyAssists5
- Kyle KuzmaRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–108
- Q40.1Chris Duarte defensive rebound127–108
- Q42.1Anthony Gill misses 27-foot three point jumper127–108
- Q45.0Anthony Gill offensive rebound127–108
- Q47.1Marvin Bagley III misses 1-foot tip shot127–108
- Q47.1Marvin Bagley III offensive rebound127–108
- Q48.0Jared Butler misses driving layup127–108
- Q410.1Jevon Carter bad pass (Johnny Davis steals)127–108
- Q412.1Patrick Baldwin Jr. makes 31-foot three point jumper (Jared Butler assists)127–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:57Corey Kispert makes driving layup (Carlton Carrington assists)CHI 17 – 26 WSH · WSH 48% → 57% +9WSH 48% → 57%+9 pts
- Q125.0Talen Horton-Tucker makes 1-foot dunk (Josh Giddey assists)CHI 21 – 29 WSH · CHI 35% → 44% +9CHI 35% → 44%+9 pts
- Q210:37Alexandre Sarr makes 26-foot three point jumper (Malcolm Brogdon assists)CHI 25 – 32 WSH · WSH 47% → 54% +7WSH 47% → 54%+7 pts
- Q28:51Coby White makes 25-foot three point shot (Josh Giddey assists)CHI 32 – 34 WSH · CHI 50% → 58% +7CHI 50% → 58%+7 pts
- Q26:24Kyshawn George makes 25-foot three point shot (Jared Butler assists)CHI 36 – 39 WSH · WSH 38% → 46% +8WSH 38% → 46%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bulls 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -5.5
- ML CHI -210 / WSH +175
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -4.5
- CHI 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- CHI: Elo 67.7%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- CHI -186
- WSH +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 125.0 – 119.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 244.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1450 | 1316 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −5 | −48 | CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CHI +129 Elo | CHI 67.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 64.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 65.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.4 | Points scored | 108.526th of 30 |
| 30th of 30123.9 | Points allowed | 122.929th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.5 | Margin | −14.430th of 30 |
| 17th of 30110.6 | Offense rating | 103.929th of 30 |
| 29th of 30116.8 | Defense rating | 117.730th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30106.1 | Pace | 104.44th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 7th of 305–5 | Road vs home | 1–530th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−48 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–9 | 5–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | — | — |
| Underdog | 8–9 | 5–10 |
| Overs–unders | 11–7 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 2–1 WSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.