Washington Wizards at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Alex SarrPoints17
- Kyshawn GeorgeAssists5
- Alex SarrRebounds14
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints22
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists9
- Myles TurnerRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–115
- Q421.1Carlton Carrington enters the game for Malcolm Brogdon103–115
- Q421.1Bilal Coulibaly out of bounds bad pass turnover103–115
- Q426.1Bennedict Mathurin lost ball turnover (Alexandre Sarr steals)103–115
- Q427.1Bennedict Mathurin defensive rebound103–115
- Q430.2Corey Kispert misses 31-foot three point pullup jump shot103–115
- Q433.1Jarace Walker bad pass (Corey Kispert steals)103–115
- Q436.1Corey Kispert lost ball turnover (Jarace Walker steals)103–115
- Q439.1Bennedict Mathurin makes 2-foot dunk (Jarace Walker assists)103–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:01Malcolm Brogdon makes 26-foot three pointer (Kyshawn George assists)WSH 66 – 64 IND · WSH 22% → 30% +7WSH 22% → 30%+7 pts
- Q36:44Tyrese Haliburton makes 29-foot running pullup jump shotWSH 73 – 76 IND · IND 74% → 81% +7IND 74% → 81%+7 pts
- Q48:46Carlton Carrington makes 24-foot three point jumper (Malcolm Brogdon assists)WSH 96 – 98 IND · WSH 15% → 25% +10WSH 15% → 25%+10 pts
- Q48:06Pascal Siakam makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bennedict Mathurin assists)WSH 96 – 103 IND · IND 82% → 90% +8IND 82% → 90%+8 pts
- Q43:47Obi Toppin makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)WSH 100 – 108 IND · IND 89% → 96% +7IND 89% → 96%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- IND -12.5
- ML WSH +520 / IND -750
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -7.5
- IND 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- IND: Elo 77.3%, market 84.5%
- Fair odds
- IND -547
- WSH +547 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 114.0 – 126.5 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1321 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −47 | −6 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · IND: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | IND crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | IND +213 Elo | IND 77.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 80.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 80.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 84.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30108.9 | Points scored | 114.412th of 30 |
| 29th of 30123.5 | Points allowed | 119.127th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−14.6 | Margin | −4.622nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30103.8 | Offense rating | 111.216th of 30 |
| 30th of 30117.7 | Defense rating | 115.725th of 30 |
| 4th of 30104.8 | Pace | 101.512th of 30 |
| 30th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 25th of 301–6 | Road vs home | 4–212th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–10 | 7–9 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | — | 3–5 |
| Underdog | 4–10 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 8–6 | 12–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 1–2 IND in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.