Indiana Pacers at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Bennedict MathurinPoints28
- T.J. McConnellAssists7
- Pascal SiakamRebounds10
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints39
- Ochai AgbajiAssists6
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–130
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–130
- Q48.1Gradey Dick defensive rebound119–130
- Q411.0Tristen Newton misses two point shot119–130
- Q418.1Jakob Poeltl makes free throw 2 of 2119–130
- Q418.1Raptors offensive team rebound119–129
- Q418.1Jakob Poeltl misses free throw 1 of 2119–129
- Q418.1Enrique Freeman personal foul119–129
- Q431.2Quenton Jackson makes driving layup119–129
- Q439.0RJ Barrett makes layup (Ochai Agbaji assists)117–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:51Gradey Dick makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ochai Agbaji assists)IND 41 – 46 TOR · TOR 49% → 56% +8TOR 49% → 56%+8 pts
- Q25:27Obi Toppin makes 27-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)IND 44 – 49 TOR · IND 35% → 43% +8IND 35% → 43%+8 pts
- Q25:18Gradey Dick makes 25-foot three point jumper (Garrett Temple assists)IND 44 – 52 TOR · TOR 57% → 65% +8TOR 57% → 65%+8 pts
- Q25:04Tyrese Haliburton makes 24-foot three point jumper (Bennedict Mathurin assists)IND 47 – 52 TOR · IND 35% → 43% +8IND 35% → 43%+8 pts
- Q24:49Garrett Temple makes 24-foot three point jumper (Ochai Agbaji assists)IND 47 – 55 TOR · TOR 57% → 65% +8TOR 57% → 65%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- IND -2.5
- ML IND -150 / TOR +130
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -3
- IND 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- IND: Elo 62.4%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- IND -138
- TOR +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 119.5 – 117.0 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1371 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | IND on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +2 | −31 | IND: Missing Myles Turner −17 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · TOR: Missing Immanuel Quickley −20, Bruno Fernando −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +88 Elo | IND 62.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 66.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 66.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30114.0 | Points scored | 112.217th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.6 | Points allowed | 119.627th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−2.6 | Margin | −7.426th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.2 | Offense rating | 108.023rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30114.8 | Defense rating | 115.125th of 30 |
| 20th of 3099.8 | Pace | 101.610th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 20th of 302–5 | Road vs home | 2–425th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+2 Elo- Myles Turner right calf−17 Elo
Raptors
−31 Elo- Immanuel Quickley left elbow−20 Elo
- Bruno Fernando right ankle sprain−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–6 | 9–5 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | — |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 9–4 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 2–2 TOR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.