Detroit Pistons at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Malik BeasleyPoints20
- Cade CunninghamAssists10
- Tobias HarrisRebounds11
Raptors- Jakob PoeltlPoints25
- RJ BarrettAssists7
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds18
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–95
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–95
- Q40.1Jalen Duren defensive rebound99–95
- Q42.1RJ Barrett misses 26-foot three point shot99–95
- Q47.2Jalen Duren makes free throw 2 of 299–95
- Q47.2Davion Mitchell enters the game for Jamison Battle98–95
- Q47.2Pistons offensive team rebound98–95
- Q47.2Jalen Duren misses free throw 1 of 298–95
- Q47.2Jakob Poeltl personal foul98–95
- Q47.2Jalen Duren defensive rebound98–95
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:48Malik Beasley makes 26-foot three point jumper (Wendell Moore Jr. assists)DET 71 – 73 TOR · DET 34% → 45% +11DET 34% → 45%+11 pts
- Q31:03Jamison Battle makes 26-foot three point jumper (Chris Boucher assists)DET 71 – 78 TOR · TOR 63% → 73% +11TOR 63% → 73%+11 pts
- Q411:45Malik Beasley makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jaden Ivey assists)DET 76 – 78 TOR · DET 32% → 44% +12DET 32% → 44%+12 pts
- Q48:22Jamison Battle makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (RJ Barrett assists)DET 84 – 85 TOR · TOR 38% → 53% +15TOR 38% → 53%+15 pts
- Q45:25Cade Cunningham makes 25-foot three point jumper (Marcus Sasser assists)DET 93 – 85 TOR · DET 79% → 90% +11DET 79% → 90%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DET -2.5
- ML DET -140 / TOR +115
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -2
- DET 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- DET: Elo 58.3%, market 55.6%
- Fair odds
- DET -125
- TOR +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 114.0 – 111.5 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1407 | 1377 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +28 | −36 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Missing Immanuel Quickley −20 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | DET crossed 1 time zone and TOR crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DET +58 Elo | DET 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 56.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 55.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30109.3 | Points scored | 112.815th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.8 | Points allowed | 120.828th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−2.5 | Margin | −8.026th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30108.2 | Offense rating | 108.322nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 116.027th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.4 | Pace | 102.37th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 16th of 302–4 | Road vs home | 2–324th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
−36 Elo- Immanuel Quickley torn ulnar collateral ligament−20 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–5 | 8–4 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | — |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 5–8 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–1 TOR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.