Toronto Raptors at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Ochai AgbajiPoints21
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists4
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds12
Clippers- James HardenPoints24
- James HardenAssists7
- James HardenRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–105
- Q42.1Ivica Zubac defensive rebound103–105
- Q44.1Jakob Poeltl misses 9-foot tip shot103–105
- Q46.0Jakob Poeltl offensive rebound103–105
- Q46.0Jakob Poeltl misses free throw 2 of 2103–105
- Q46.0Ivica Zubac enters the game for Norman Powell103–105
- Q46.0Jakob Poeltl makes free throw 1 of 2103–105
- Q46.0Derrick Jones Jr. personal take foul102–105
- Q46.2James Harden personal take foul102–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:02Norman Powell makes 26-foot three point shot (James Harden assists)TOR 95 – 100 LAC · LAC 73% → 91% +19LAC 73% → 91%+19 pts
- Q41:19Chris Boucher makes two point shotTOR 99 – 100 LAC · TOR 15% → 35% +19TOR 15% → 35%+19 pts
- Q455.2James Harden makes 6-foot driving floating jump shotTOR 99 – 102 LAC · LAC 67% → 88% +21LAC 67% → 88%+21 pts
- Q439.0Immanuel Quickley makes 26-foot three point jumper (RJ Barrett assists)TOR 102 – 102 LAC · TOR 8% → 48% +40TOR 8% → 48%+40 pts
- Q435.1Norman Powell makes free throw 2 of 2TOR 102 – 103 LAC · LAC 52% → 70% +18LAC 52% → 70%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -6.5
- ML TOR +200 / LAC -240
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -3.5
- LAC 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- LAC: Elo 63.0%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- LAC -212
- TOR +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 110.0 – 116.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1395 | 1559 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | LAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −1 | −68 | TOR: Usual rotation · LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +92 Elo | LAC 63.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 69.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 69.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30118.0 | Points scored | 108.923rd of 30 |
| 30th of 30124.7 | Points allowed | 106.72nd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.7 | Margin | +2.213th of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.2 | Offense rating | 110.020th of 30 |
| 30th of 30117.5 | Defense rating | 107.86th of 30 |
| 6th of 30103.5 | Pace | 97.729th of 30 |
| 30th of 300–4 | Road vs home | 2–423rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
−68 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–2 | 6–3 |
| Last 10 | 7–2 | 6–3 |
| Favorite | — | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 7–2 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 7–2 | 3–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2 | 3–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 0–2 LAC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.