Toronto Raptors at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints23
- Davion MitchellAssists6
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds8
Kings- DeMar DeRozanPoints27
- Domantas SabonisAssists13
- Keegan MurrayRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–122
- Q418.1Doug McDermott defensive rebound107–122
- Q422.1Alex Len blocks Bruno Fernando 's 1-foot two point shot107–122
- Q428.1Bruno Fernando defensive rebound107–122
- Q433.1Isaac Jones misses 10-foot two point shot107–122
- Q447.0Jordan McLaughlin defensive rebound107–122
- Q450.1Jamal Shead misses driving floating jump shot107–122
- Q41:08Colby Jones enters the game for Keon Ellis107–122
- Q41:08Isaac Jones enters the game for Keegan Murray107–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:45Jamison Battle makes 22-foot three point jumper (Ochai Agbaji assists)TOR 71 – 66 SAC · TOR 32% → 41% +9TOR 32% → 41%+9 pts
- Q357.1Jamison Battle makes 25-foot three point jumper (RJ Barrett assists)TOR 92 – 87 SAC · TOR 38% → 50% +12TOR 38% → 50%+12 pts
- Q410:45DeMar DeRozan makes 17-foot pullup jump shotTOR 95 – 91 SAC · SAC 42% → 51% +9SAC 42% → 51%+9 pts
- Q410:18Malik Monk makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (DeMar DeRozan assists)TOR 95 – 94 SAC · SAC 50% → 63% +13SAC 50% → 63%+13 pts
- Q46:19Keegan Murray makes 25-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)TOR 102 – 109 SAC · SAC 82% → 91% +9SAC 82% → 91%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -11.5
- ML TOR +475 / SAC -750
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -8
- SAC 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- SAC: Elo 78.3%, market 83.5%
- Fair odds
- SAC -507
- TOR +507 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 113.0 – 124.5 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1400 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −16 | +50 | TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +223 Elo | SAC 78.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 82.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 82.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 83.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30119.4 | Points scored | 118.38th of 30 |
| 30th of 30125.0 | Points allowed | 114.017th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−5.6 | Margin | +4.37th of 30 |
| 16th of 30111.4 | Offense rating | 113.57th of 30 |
| 29th of 30116.6 | Defense rating | 109.410th of 30 |
| 5th of 30104.3 | Pace | 102.69th of 30 |
| 30th of 300–3 | Road vs home | 1–116th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
+50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–1 | 4–3 |
| Last 10 | 7–1 | 4–3 |
| Favorite | — | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 7–1 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–1 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–1 | 4–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 1–2 SAC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.