Sacramento Kings at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- DeMar DeRozanPoints33
- Domantas SabonisAssists10
- Domantas SabonisRebounds20
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints31
- Davion MitchellAssists7
- RJ BarrettRebounds9
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game128–131
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime128–131
- OT1.1Raptors defensive team rebound128–131
- OT2.1De'Aaron Fox misses 27-foot three point jumper128–131
- OT3.2Keon Ellis offensive rebound128–131
- OT6.1DeMar DeRozan misses 23-foot three point shot128–131
- OT9.0Malik Monk enters the game for Trey Lyles128–131
- OT9.0Kings Full timeout128–131
- OT9.0Trey Lyles defensive rebound128–131
- OT9.0Domantas Sabonis enters the game for Malik Monk128–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:47Gradey Dick makes 25-foot three point jumper (RJ Barrett assists)SAC 112 – 116 TOR · TOR 55% → 83% +28TOR 55% → 83%+28 pts
- Q419.0DeMar DeRozan makes driving layupSAC 118 – 119 TOR · SAC 3% → 28% +25SAC 3% → 28%+25 pts
- Q42.1Domantas Sabonis makes tip shotSAC 120 – 120 TOR · SAC <1% → 51% +51SAC <1% → 51%+51 pts
- OT40.1DeMar DeRozan makes 27-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)SAC 128 – 129 TOR · SAC 5% → 36% +31SAC 5% → 36%+31 pts
- OT19.1Gradey Dick makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot (Chris Boucher assists)SAC 128 – 131 TOR · TOR 72% → 97% +25TOR 72% → 97%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -9.5
- ML SAC -400 / TOR +315
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -7
- SAC 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- SAC: Elo 75.0%, market 76.9%
- Fair odds
- SAC -332
- TOR +332 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 122.5 – 113.0 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1392 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | TOR and SAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +67 | −25 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +191 Elo | SAC 75.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 80.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 80.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 76.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.8 | Points scored | 117.59th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.4 | Points allowed | 125.230th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+6.4 | Margin | −7.726th of 30 |
| 7th of 30114.1 | Offense rating | 111.113th of 30 |
| 6th of 30107.9 | Defense rating | 118.330th of 30 |
| 10th of 30103.2 | Pace | 103.86th of 30 |
| 8th of 302–1 | Road vs home | 1–322nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+67 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
−25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–2 | 5–1 |
| Last 10 | 3–2 | 5–1 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | — |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–2 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2 | 5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 2–0 TOR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.