Toronto Raptors at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints31
- Davion MitchellAssists11
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds16
Hornets- Tre MannPoints27
- LaMelo BallAssists6
- Nick RichardsRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game133–138
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter133–138
- Q40.0Raptors offensive team rebound133–138
- Q40.0Davion Mitchell misses 49-foot three point pullup jump shot133–138
- Q41.1Grant Williams makes free throw 2 of 2133–138
- Q41.1Grant Williams makes free throw 1 of 2133–137
- Q41.1Chris Boucher enters the game for Gradey Dick133–136
- Q41.1Gradey Dick personal take foul133–136
- Q43.1Gradey Dick makes driving layup (Ochai Agbaji assists)133–136
- Q47.0Raptors Full timeout131–136
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:17Grant Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cody Martin assists)TOR 82 – 82 CHA · CHA 51% → 61% +10CHA 51% → 61%+10 pts
- Q34:50Cody Martin makes 26-foot three pointer (Tidjane Salaun assists)TOR 84 – 85 CHA · CHA 54% → 64% +10CHA 54% → 64%+10 pts
- Q33:03Chris Boucher makes 22-foot three point jumper (Ochai Agbaji assists)TOR 94 – 89 CHA · TOR 47% → 58% +11TOR 47% → 58%+11 pts
- Q31:34LaMelo Ball makes 22-foot three point shot (Tre Mann assists)TOR 96 – 96 CHA · CHA 48% → 60% +12CHA 48% → 60%+12 pts
- Q333.1Tre Mann makes 26-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)TOR 96 – 100 CHA · CHA 63% → 74% +11CHA 63% → 74%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hornets 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- CHA -6.5
- ML TOR +200 / CHA -250
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -3
- CHA 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- CHA: Elo 61.2%, market 68.2%
- Fair odds
- CHA -214
- TOR +214 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 109.5 – 116.0 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1402 | 1409 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −44 | −8 | TOR: Missing Immanuel Quickley −21 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHA +79 Elo | CHA 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 66.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 66.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHA 68.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30111.8 | Points scored | 112.017th of 30 |
| 25th of 30120.5 | Points allowed | 114.717th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−8.8 | Margin | −2.716th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30106.1 | Offense rating | 110.714th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30114.4 | Defense rating | 113.320th of 30 |
| 11th of 30102.5 | Pace | 100.819th of 30 |
| 22nd of 300–1 | Road vs home | 0–121st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
−44 Elo- Immanuel Quickley right pelvic contusion−21 Elo
Hornets
−8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 3–1 CHA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.