Charlotte Hornets at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints34
- Grant WilliamsAssists6
- Nick RichardsRebounds13
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints38
- Trae YoungAssists10
- Trae YoungRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–125
- Q41.0Trae Young defensive rebound120–125
- Q42.0Tre Mann misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot120–125
- Q46.1Vasilije Micic enters the game for Nick Richards120–125
- Q46.1Hornets Full timeout120–125
- Q46.1Jalen Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2120–125
- Q46.1Nick Richards enters the game for Vasilije Micic120–124
- Q46.1Jalen Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2120–124
- Q46.1Miles Bridges personal take foul120–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:32Trae Young makes 26-foot three pointerCHA 90 – 93 ATL · ATL 58% → 70% +12ATL 58% → 70%+12 pts
- Q410:12LaMelo Ball makes 24-foot three pointerCHA 93 – 93 ATL · CHA 30% → 42% +13CHA 30% → 42%+13 pts
- Q47:31LaMelo Ball makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotCHA 99 – 101 ATL · CHA 20% → 33% +13CHA 20% → 33%+13 pts
- Q46:28Cody Martin makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tre Mann assists)CHA 102 – 103 ATL · CHA 23% → 38% +15CHA 23% → 38%+15 pts
- Q45:36Seth Curry makes 25-foot three point jumper (Grant Williams assists)CHA 105 – 106 ATL · CHA 23% → 38% +16CHA 23% → 38%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -5.5
- ML CHA +185 / ATL -225
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -3.5
- ATL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- ATL: Elo 63.8%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- ATL -197
- CHA +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 110.5 – 116.0 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1420 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −14 | −23 | CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups · ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CHA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ATL +98 Elo | ATL 63.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 63.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 63.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30106.6 | Points scored | 118.35th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30116.8 | Points allowed | 120.528th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−10.2 | Margin | −2.221st of 30 |
| 27th of 30107.8 | Offense rating | 115.112th of 30 |
| 30th of 30118.1 | Defense rating | 117.327th of 30 |
| 24th of 3098.6 | Pace | 101.95th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 25th of 3010–31 | Road vs home | 21–2019th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
−23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHA 3–1 ATL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.