Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Dejounte MurrayPoints32
- Trae YoungAssists12
- Mouhamed GueyeRebounds9
Pacers- Myles TurnerPoints31
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists13
- Myles TurnerRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–157
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–157
- Q45.0shot clock turnover115–157
- Q429.0shot clock turnover115–157
- Q453.0Jarace Walker defensive rebound115–157
- Q453.1Mouhamed Gueye misses tip shot115–157
- Q454.1Mouhamed Gueye offensive rebound115–157
- Q455.0Kobe Bufkin misses driving floating jump shot115–157
- Q41:07Kobe Bufkin defensive rebound115–157
- Q41:10Kendall Brown misses two point shot115–157
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:50Mouhamed Gueye makes 25-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)ATL 58 – 62 IND · ATL 19% → 25% +6ATL 19% → 25%+6 pts
- Q25:21Dejounte Murray makes 23-foot three point jumper (De'Andre Hunter assists)ATL 61 – 62 IND · ATL 25% → 32% +7ATL 25% → 32%+7 pts
- Q24:38Tyrese Haliburton makes 2-foot two point shot (Pascal Siakam assists)ATL 62 – 64 IND · IND 65% → 70% +5IND 65% → 70%+5 pts
- Q24:26Bogdan Bogdanovic makes driving layupATL 64 – 64 IND · ATL 30% → 35% +5ATL 30% → 35%+5 pts
- Q24:19Andrew Nembhard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ben Sheppard assists)ATL 64 – 67 IND · IND 65% → 72% +7IND 65% → 72%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pacers 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -6
- IND 73%
- Fair odds
- IND -228
- ATL +228 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 118.6 – 124.9 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −18 | +27 | ATL: Missing Clint Capela −22 · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | ATL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | IND +173 Elo | IND 73.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 69.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 69.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30118.4 | Points scored | 122.71st of 30 |
| 27th of 30120.1 | Points allowed | 120.328th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−1.7 | Margin | +2.414th of 30 |
| 12th of 30115.2 | Offense rating | 118.32nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30116.9 | Defense rating | 116.024th of 30 |
| 5th of 30101.8 | Pace | 103.62nd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 21st of 3014–25 | Road vs home | 25–1511th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−18 Elo- Clint Capela rest−22 Elo
Pacers
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 0–3 IND in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.