Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Tyrese HaliburtonPoints19
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists12
- Tyrese HaliburtonRebounds6
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints33
- Max StrusAssists9
- Jarrett AllenRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–129
- Q41.0Jarrett Allen defensive rebound120–129
- Q41.0Tyrese Haliburton misses 26-foot three point shot120–129
- Q46.1Isaac Okoro makes free throw 1 of 1120–129
- Q46.1Pascal Siakam shooting foul120–128
- Q46.1Isaac Okoro makes two point shot (Max Strus assists)120–128
- Q48.2Andrew Nembhard lost ball turnover (Max Strus steals)120–126
- Q415.1Caris LeVert makes free throw 2 of 2120–126
- Q415.1Cavaliers offensive team rebound120–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:29Tyrese Haliburton makes 27-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 105 – 107 CLE · IND 23% → 37% +15IND 23% → 37%+15 pts
- Q43:48Pascal Siakam makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 114 – 117 CLE · IND 13% → 28% +15IND 13% → 28%+15 pts
- Q43:30Darius Garland makes 26-foot step back jumpshotIND 114 – 120 CLE · CLE 73% → 88% +15CLE 73% → 88%+15 pts
- Q42:04Pascal Siakam makes driving layupIND 118 – 120 CLE · IND 15% → 30% +15IND 15% → 30%+15 pts
- Q450.0Darius Garland makes 25-foot step back jumpshotIND 118 – 123 CLE · CLE 79% → 98% +19CLE 79% → 98%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cavaliers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -1.5
- CLE 45%
- Fair odds
- CLE -117
- IND +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 115.5 – 116.7 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1565 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +22 | +21 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +38 Elo | IND 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 53.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30122.7 | Points scored | 112.521st of 30 |
| 28th of 30120.2 | Points allowed | 110.07th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+2.5 | Margin | +2.514th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.4 | Offense rating | 113.317th of 30 |
| 24th of 30115.9 | Defense rating | 110.86th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30103.6 | Pace | 98.526th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 15th of 3021–19 | Road vs home | 24–1411th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
IND 2–1 CLE in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.