Brooklyn Nets at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints36
- Ben SimmonsAssists8
- Dorian Finney-SmithRebounds8
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints30
- Trae YoungAssists12
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–120
- Q41.0Dennis Schroder bad pass (Jalen Johnson steals)116–120
- Q42.0Dennis Schroder enters the game for Noah Clowney116–120
- Q42.0Nets Full timeout116–120
- Q42.0Trae Young makes free throw 2 of 2116–120
- Q42.0Noah Clowney enters the game for Dennis Schroder116–119
- Q42.0Trae Young makes free throw 1 of 2116–119
- Q42.0Dorian Finney-Smith personal take foul116–118
- Q43.1Cam Thomas makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot116–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:21Cam Thomas makes 25-foot three pointer (Ben Simmons assists)BKN 64 – 61 ATL · BKN 36% → 45% +9BKN 36% → 45%+9 pts
- Q34:46Cam Thomas makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)BKN 69 – 69 ATL · BKN 28% → 37% +9BKN 28% → 37%+9 pts
- Q31:52Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Vit Krejci assists)BKN 77 – 80 ATL · ATL 62% → 72% +10ATL 62% → 72%+10 pts
- Q31:16Ziaire Williams makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ben Simmons assists)BKN 82 – 82 ATL · BKN 28% → 39% +11BKN 28% → 39%+11 pts
- Q411:47Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 22-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)BKN 83 – 86 ATL · ATL 61% → 72% +11ATL 61% → 72%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -7.5
- ML BKN +230 / ATL -280
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -4
- ATL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- ATL: Elo 65.4%, market 70.9%
- Fair odds
- ATL -243
- BKN +243 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 108.0 – 115.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1457 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −81 | −26 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +110 Elo | ATL 65.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 65.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 65.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 70.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30110.4 | Points scored | 118.35th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.3 | Points allowed | 120.528th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−2.9 | Margin | −2.221st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30111.2 | Offense rating | 115.112th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.1 | Defense rating | 117.327th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3098.6 | Pace | 101.95th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 3012–28 | Road vs home | 21–2019th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−81 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
−26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BKN 3–1 ATL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.