Brooklyn Nets at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints18
- Trendon WatfordAssists5
- Jalen WilsonRebounds9
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints26
- Kyle LowryAssists8
- Paul ReedRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game86–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter86–107
- Q42.0shot clock turnover86–107
- Q424.1Ricky Council IV defensive rebound86–107
- Q427.1Keon Johnson misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot86–107
- Q444.1Keon Johnson defensive rebound86–107
- Q448.0Cameron Payne misses running pullup jump shot86–107
- Q453.1Paul Reed defensive rebound86–107
- Q455.1Jalen Wilson misses two point shot86–107
- Q41:17Paul Reed makes tip shot86–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15.0Noah Clowney makes 24-foot three point jumper (Lonnie Walker IV assists)BKN 23 – 22 PHI · BKN 33% → 39% +7BKN 33% → 39%+7 pts
- Q29:53Buddy Hield makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nicolas Batum assists)BKN 25 – 29 PHI · PHI 65% → 71% +7PHI 65% → 71%+7 pts
- Q28:39Cam Thomas makes 25-foot step back jumpshotBKN 30 – 32 PHI · BKN 27% → 33% +7BKN 27% → 33%+7 pts
- Q311:11Cam Thomas makes 24-foot step back jumpshotBKN 49 – 55 PHI · BKN 17% → 24% +6BKN 17% → 24%+6 pts
- Q310:18Cam Thomas makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotBKN 52 – 57 PHI · BKN 19% → 26% +7BKN 19% → 26%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
76ers 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -4
- PHI 66%
- Fair odds
- PHI -184
- BKN +184 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 105.1 – 109.8 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1438 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −16 | −26 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHI: Missing Joel Embiid −89, De'Anthony Melton −3 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +115 Elo | PHI 65.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 64.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 64.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30110.7 | Points scored | 114.715th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.3 | Points allowed | 111.99th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−2.7 | Margin | +2.811th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.5 | Offense rating | 114.814th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.2 | Defense rating | 112.011th of 30 |
| 24th of 3098.6 | Pace | 99.418th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 3012–27 | Road vs home | 24–1615th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
−26 Elo- Joel Embiid left knee injury management−89 Elo
- De'Anthony Melton back injury−3 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BKN 2–1 PHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.