Orlando Magic at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints24
- Paolo BancheroAssists7
- Paolo BancheroRebounds15
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints32
- Joel EmbiidAssists7
- Joel EmbiidRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–125
- Q418.1Franz Wagner makes 1-foot two point shot113–125
- Q419.1Franz Wagner offensive rebound111–125
- Q423.1Franz Wagner misses 25-foot three point shot111–125
- Q427.1Terquavion Smith lost ball turnover (Gary Harris steals)111–125
- Q436.0Franz Wagner makes 4-foot jump bank shot (Jonathan Isaac assists)111–125
- Q446.1Paul Reed makes 1-foot dunk (Terquavion Smith assists)109–125
- Q41:03Jeff Dowtin Jr. enters the game for Joel Embiid109–123
- Q41:03Terquavion Smith enters the game for Tobias Harris109–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:11Tyrese Maxey makes 28-foot step back jumpshotORL 7 – 6 PHI · PHI 55% → 61% +6PHI 55% → 61%+6 pts
- Q259.2Gary Harris makes 22-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)ORL 61 – 63 PHI · ORL 27% → 35% +8ORL 27% → 35%+8 pts
- Q311:36Joel Embiid makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kyle Lowry assists)ORL 61 – 71 PHI · PHI 78% → 84% +6PHI 78% → 84%+6 pts
- Q44:35Paolo Banchero makes driving layupORL 107 – 113 PHI · ORL 7% → 13% +6ORL 7% → 13%+6 pts
- Q44:20Tyrese Maxey makes 18-foot step back jumpshotORL 107 – 115 PHI · PHI 87% → 93% +6PHI 87% → 93%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
76ers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -4
- PHI 65%
- Fair odds
- PHI -175
- ORL +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 103.4 – 107.6 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −2 | +53 | ORL: Usual rotation · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | ORL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHI +108 Elo | PHI 65.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 63.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 63.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30110.4 | Points scored | 114.615th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30108.5 | Points allowed | 111.89th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.9 | Margin | +2.711th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.5 | Offense rating | 114.714th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30109.6 | Defense rating | 112.011th of 30 |
| 25th of 3098.5 | Pace | 99.318th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 18th of 3018–22 | Road vs home | 23–1615th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ORL 0–2 PHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.