Charlotte Hornets at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints34
- LaMelo BallAssists11
- Miles BridgesRebounds9
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints28
- Fred VanVleetAssists6
- Alperen SengunRebounds18
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–105
- Q41.0Rockets offensive team rebound110–105
- Q41.0Fred VanVleet misses 45-foot three point pullup jump shot110–105
- Q43.1Tre Mann makes free throw 2 of 2110–105
- Q43.1Alperen Sengun enters the game for Amen Thompson109–105
- Q43.1Tre Mann makes free throw 1 of 2109–105
- Q43.1Tari Eason personal take foul108–105
- Q44.1Seth Curry enters the game for Moussa Diabate108–105
- Q44.1Tre Mann enters the game for Nick Richards108–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:38Fred VanVleet makes 25-foot three pointerCHA 93 – 96 HOU · HOU 57% → 77% +20HOU 57% → 77%+20 pts
- Q43:25Tre Mann makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotCHA 96 – 96 HOU · CHA 22% → 43% +21CHA 22% → 43%+21 pts
- Q41:40LaMelo Ball makes 30-foot three point jumper (Nick Richards assists)CHA 103 – 98 HOU · CHA 67% → 90% +23CHA 67% → 90%+23 pts
- Q41:01Jalen Green makes 16-foot pullup jump shot (Alperen Sengun assists)CHA 103 – 103 HOU · HOU 27% → 54% +27HOU 27% → 54%+27 pts
- Q440.1Grant Williams makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (LaMelo Ball assists)CHA 106 – 103 HOU · CHA 47% → 89% +42CHA 47% → 89%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -8.5
- ML CHA +280 / HOU -350
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -7
- HOU 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- HOU: Elo 75.8%, market 74.7%
- Fair odds
- HOU -296
- CHA +296 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 111.0 – 119.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1407 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −24 | +31 | CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +199 Elo | HOU 75.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 72.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 73.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 74.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30106.6 | Points scored | 114.316th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30116.8 | Points allowed | 113.214th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−10.2 | Margin | +1.118th of 30 |
| 27th of 30107.8 | Offense rating | 112.321st of 30 |
| 30th of 30118.1 | Defense rating | 111.29th of 30 |
| 24th of 3098.6 | Pace | 100.913th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 25th of 3010–31 | Road vs home | 27–148th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHA 0–2 HOU in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.