Charlotte Hornets at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Tre MannPoints19
- Tre MannAssists8
- Aleksej PokusevskiRebounds5
Celtics- Payton PritchardPoints31
- Payton PritchardAssists11
- Oshae BrissettRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–131
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–131
- Q412.1Leaky Black makes 1-foot dunk (Bryce McGowens assists)98–131
- Q413.1Hornets offensive team rebound96–131
- Q414.1JD Davison blocks Bryce McGowens's driving layup96–131
- Q435.1JD Davison makes two point shot (Jaden Springer assists)96–131
- Q438.1Amari Bailey bad pass (Jaden Springer steals)96–129
- Q455.1Neemias Queta makes 1-foot dunk (Jaden Springer assists)96–129
- Q41:15Tre Mann out of bounds lost ball turnover96–127
- Q41:23Jaden Springer makes free throw 2 of 296–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:10Payton Pritchard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Sam Hauser assists)CHA 8 – 7 BOS · BOS 55% → 61% +6BOS 55% → 61%+6 pts
- Q14:41Brandon Miller makes 25-foot three pointer (Vasilije Micic assists)CHA 19 – 17 BOS · CHA 35% → 42% +6CHA 35% → 42%+6 pts
- Q210:30Davis Bertans makes 29-foot jump bank shot (Tre Mann assists)CHA 29 – 32 BOS · CHA 25% → 31% +6CHA 25% → 31%+6 pts
- Q29:20JT Thor makes 24-foot three point jumper (Nick Smith Jr. assists)CHA 32 – 34 BOS · CHA 27% → 34% +7CHA 27% → 34%+7 pts
- Q28:25Aleksej Pokusevski makes 26-foot three point jumper (Davis Bertans assists)CHA 35 – 38 BOS · CHA 25% → 32% +6CHA 25% → 32%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -8
- BOS 79%
- Fair odds
- BOS -176
- CHA +176 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 106.8 – 111.1 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1336 | 1683 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −13 | −128 | CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups · BOS: Missing Derrick White −30 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +228 Elo | BOS 78.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 61.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 63.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30106.5 | Points scored | 120.32nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30116.7 | Points allowed | 109.25th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−10.2 | Margin | +11.11st of 30 |
| 28th of 30107.7 | Offense rating | 120.91st of 30 |
| 29th of 30118.0 | Defense rating | 109.83rd of 30 |
| 25th of 3098.6 | Pace | 98.723rd of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 27th of 309–30 | Road vs home | 35–41st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
−128 Elo- Derrick White left ankle sprain−30 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHA 1–1 BOS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.